Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Chartbook Emerging Asia Daily Monitor Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)
- EZ core inflation fell further in April; the June rate cut looks safe, but July’s is hanging in the balance.
- EZ GDP rose by 0.3% in Q1, in line with our forecast; country data suggest net trade was the main boost.
- Southern economies did the heavy lifting, again, and likely will continue to outperform this year.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Early April HICP data in Spain and Germany confirm that energy inflation rose, while core inflation dipped.
- We’re lowering our EZ headline inflation forecast by 0.1pp, to 2.4%; the core likely fell by 0.4pp, to 2.5%.
- The Irish economy sprang back to life in Q1; we still look for EZ GDP to have risen by 0.3% in the quarter.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
THE FIRST ECB RATE CUT IS COMING IN JUNE...
- ...IF THE INFLATION AND WAGE DATA COOPERATE
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- A pick-up in services production boosted French growth in Q1; Q2 is set for further improvement, just.
- Forecast upgrades in Germany and France mean we now estimate EZ GDP rose by 0.3% in Q1.
- Political uncertainty is increasing in Spain, as the Prime Minister mulls resignation.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We’re lifting our forecast for German Q1 GDP growth, by 0.2pp to 0.2% quarter-to-quarter.
- German manufacturing and services output are on the mend, while retail sales are still stuck in the mud.
- Construction was boosted by mild weather in Q1; output will fall sharply in the second quarter.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The jump in US rate expectations is not needed to explain the similar repricing in EZ expectations.
- We expect bond yields in Germany to drift lower in the near term as the ECB starts cutting rates...
- ...But we still see an increase next year as the policy rate settles above neutral and inflation risks return.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- EZ construction rose in February, but less so than implied by the advance data; seasonals to blame?
- Either way, construction was a boost to EZ GDP in Q1, and it suggests risks are tilted to the upside.
- The EZ current account surplus dipped in February and will fall further; portfolio inflows remain robust.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Rising energy inflation is a threat to the June rate cut, but we think falling core inflation will do the trick.
- The early Easter sustained services inflation in March, due to a leap in airfares; it will fall in April.
- Our forecast for a July rate cut is now hanging by a thread; we’ll update our view with the April HICP.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We see little reason why the ECB should worry about the euro if it has to cut rates before the Fed.
- Our Nowcast model now points to EZ GDP rising by 0.2% in Q1, despite soft industrial production data.
- A volatile Middle East could divert attention away from Ukraine’s war with Russia; Mr. Putin knows this.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The ECB stood pat yesterday but sent a clear signal of a first rate cut at its next meeting, on June 6.
- We expect the Bank to cut rates by 25bp in June, and at each of the next three meetings.
- Markets have pared back expectations of ECB cuts after the hot US CPI data; that is a mistake.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- A lot can still go wrong in the EZ economy, but the data suggest that GDP growth firmed in Q1.
- Early data imply that EZ services production rebounded strongly in the first quarter.
- Mild weather boosted construction in Q1, and manufacturing, ex-Ireland, improved too.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- This week’s ECB meeting will be a dovish hold; Ms. Lagarde will lay the foundation for a June cut.
- The consensus and markets see the ECB’s policy rate falling below 2.5% in 2025; we beg to differ.
- Rising production in industry and services points to upside risks to German GDP growth in Q1.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- EZ inflation surprised to the downside in March, but not enough for the ECB to pull the trigger next week.
- Services inflation was sustained by the early Easter in March; it will come down sharply in April.
- We expect EZ headline inflation to stabilise around 2% from August through to Q1 next year.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
ECB MONETARY EASING WILL BEGIN SOON...
- ...APRIL IS LIVE, BUT JUNE IS MORE LIKELY
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- German consumer confidence remains depressed, but the headlines are poor indicators of spending.
- Rising real income growth and a stabilisation in the labour market are tailwinds for German consumers…
- ...But early-Q1 data on retail and car sales point to near-term downside risks for consumption growth.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- EZ inflation dipped in February, matching the first estimate; upside risks are now building for March.
- An upward surprise in the March and April inflation reports would put a June rate cut in jeopardy.
- We still struggle to see a perfect landing for inflation at 2%; how will the ECB respond to this?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone