- We look for broad-based strength in the surveys for May, but we think it will be temporary.
- The Eurozone’s trade surplus soared in Q1, boosted by tariff front-running in pharmaceuticals.
- The EZ runs a deficit with the US in services, but a surplus if intellectual property is excluded.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: The core remains soft, but surveys point to upside risks.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Front-loaded fiscal stimulus can add 0.5pp to German growth this year, in the best-case scenario.
- Defence spending is poised to accelerate after a slow start to the year, but the multiplier is low.
- Front-loading of infrastructure spending via €100B in funding for local government is a key upside risk.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- A temporary reprieve in the US–China trade war is worth far less than financial markets are assuming.
- Early signs suggest Mr. Trump will go hard on the EU, keeping uncertainty for the EZ economy elevated.
- Isabel Schnabel is coming out swinging for ECB hawks, but will her argument carry the day?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The EU’s announcement of retaliation against US tariffs is an attempt to get Washington to the table.
- Brussels’ WTO case against the US indicates that it won’t accept 10% as a floor for tariffs.
- EU purchases of energy, agricultural products and defence goods are the clearest route to a deal.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Soaring; Q1 GDP growth on track for an upward revision.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Swiss inflation fell to a lower-than-expected zero in April, with a knock-on effect on our forecasts…
- ...We now see deflation until mid-2026; the SNB will cut its policy rate below zero in June in response.
- We look for a 50bp rate cut at the next meeting, taking the key policy rate to -0.25%.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Germany CPI looks softer than we anticipated, but core inflation rose.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Supporting our above-consensus EZ call.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Growth slowed in Q1 after a strong H2-24.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Barely growing, and trade uncertainty could well keep it that way in 2025.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: EZ inflation expectations jumped on the eve of the tariff shock.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: French industry intends to make hay while the sun is still shining.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Our forecasts for Q1 GDP and the April HICP imply upside risk for ECB rate expectations this week.
- Robust national business surveys point to upside risk to our Q2 forecasts for GDP in Germany and France.
- Tariff front-running seems to be just what the doctor ordered for manufacturing in France.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Resilient, but labour market prospects remain difficult.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The ECB is making a dovish shift, conditional on a benign tariff outcome for core inflation.
- Energy prices and the euro can be cruel mistresses for policymakers looking for signals on inflation.
- Markets are pricing in the tail-risk for ECB rates; we still think the Bank will be more conservative.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Easing, as economic uncertainty rises.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
