Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Emerging Asia Global Weekly Monitor Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)
- The EZ PMI fell in June, but it rose solidly over Q2 as a whole; all eyes are now on the early Q3 data.
- A drop in the EZ manufacturing output PMI raises questions about the rebound in industry; a blip?
- The French PMIs were stung by political uncertainty; we think it will blow over by August.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Swiss inflation held steady in May but is likely to fall in the coming months, to around just 1% by August.
- Weak growth will drag down domestic inflation, and gas & oil prices point to a falling imported rate.
- The SNB will probably cut its key policy rate again this week, by 25bp to 1.25%; more cuts are likely.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- A mini-boom in EZ consumption is coming, judging by the trend in real disposable income growth.
- The inventory cycle reached a trough in Q1; gross capital formation will rebound from here.
- Net exports soared at the start of 2024 but will likely be a drag on growth for the rest of the year.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- EZ services inflation snapped back in May; it will come down eventually, but this will take a while.
- The ECB will cut its policy rate this week, but hopes of a July cut are now lost; September is at risk too.
- EZ consumers’ spending, ex-services, fell in April, but this was mainly due to Easter seasonals in food.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- German GDP growth was propelled by construction and net exports in Q1; neither will be sustained…
- …but growth in manufacturing capex is bottoming out and real income growth is accelerating.
- We think GDP growth will slow in Q2, to 0.1%, as construction investment and net exports fall back.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- EZ headline inflation held steady in April, matching the first estimate; core inflation fell slightly.
- The near-term outlook for energy inflation has improved, but that will change if oil prices rebound.
- Services inflation is as sticky as ever and will likely rebound in May; insurance inflation is rocketing.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Polls point to more seats for the far-right in the European Parliament after June’s vote...
- ...This will have little bearing on policy, even where the EU has exclusive competencies, such as trade.
- Any hard-line recommendations from far-right MEPs will likely be watered down by the majority.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We look for agreeable data this week; we see upside risk to GDP growth, and downward to core inflation.
- Money data point to a lift-off in GDP growth over the coming quarters, adjusted for the savings shift...
- ...But lending figures suggest we are right to think investment will remain depressed in H1.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The Eurozone is still an incomplete currency union, but we think it will carry on regardless.
- The pandemic and war in Ukraine show that inflation is possible even in a rapidly aging economy.
- Fiscal activism, inflation and higher interest rates are all here to stay in the EZ, for the foreseeable future.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Our preliminary forecasts for France and Germany point to downside risks to EZ core inflation in April.
- A VAT hike on gas in Germany and higher oil prices are near-term upside risks to energy inflation.
- Italy will struggle to shrink its budget deficit to 3% any time soon; will the EU take note?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: The ECB will cut in June, barring a significant shift in its Q2 forecasts.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Industrial production in the Eurozone likely jumped in February but fell over Q1 as a whole.
- Retail sales data point to a subdued EZ consumer in Q1, but the services numbers will look better.
- Our Nowcast model points to EZ GDP stagnating in Q1, but it is too downbeat; a 0.2% rise is more likely.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Early HICP numbers point to downside risks to EZ inflation, but beware Easter effects in Germany.
- A soaring French budget deficit in 2023 raises the risk of a confidence-denting income tax hike in 2024.
- The Eurozone money supply data are picking up, supporting a further rebound in the composite PMI.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The EZ economy remained stuck in the mud in Q4; we think growth is now rebounding, slightly.
- A rise in consumers’ spending and a lift from inventories should be key drivers of growth in 2024.
- Industrial output in Germany and Spain rose in January, but a plunge in Ireland will drive the EZ headline.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Hopes for a spring ECB rate cut have been dashed; we now see the first of four 2024 rate cuts in June.
- Services inflation in the Eurozone is still running hot; it likely won’t drop much below 3% this year.
- Absent a negative shock, underlying inflation in the EZ will struggle to return to 2% on a sustained basis.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- A crash in investment weighed down the German economy in Q4; capex is set for a big fall in 2024.
- Consumers’ spending is now rebounding in Germany, in line with firming growth in real income.
- We now see zero growth in Germany this year, down from +0.3% previously; risks are to the downside.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Swiss industrial production fared worse than we thought in Q4, but construction outperformed...
- ...We are sticking to our call that GDP fell by 0.2% on the quarter in Q4; if so, it rose by 1.2% in 2023.
- Base effects point to a big fall in French core inflation in February, to around 2% on the HICP.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- German energy prices should be falling more quickly; will they adjust further in coming months?
- The drop in German food inflation is almost over, but we think it will dip a bit further in Q1.
- Core inflation in Germany will decline further in the first half of the year, despite stickiness in services.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Italian GDP rose more than we expected in Q4, forcing us to raise our forecasts for this year...
- ...Consumption will drive up GDP, which we now think will rise by 0.8% this year, the same as in 2023.
- A correction in investment is coming; a key downside risk is that it is bigger and quicker than we expect.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone