EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, France, June 2025

In one line: Driven by a snap-back in services. 

14 July 2025 Eurozone Monitor ECB hawks will struggle to hold the line over the summer

• Isabel Schnabel draws another line in the sand for the ECB’s policy rate to stay at 2.0%…
• …but we still think she and other hawks will lose out as dovish data tee up a 25bp cut in September.
• Fair value models point to Bund yields at 2.5%, but fiscal policy and Dutch pension selling say otherwise.

EZ Datanote: Final Inflation, Germany, June 2025

In one line: At target, and risks tilted to the downside over the summer. 

EZ Datanote: Trade Balance, Germany, May 2025

In one line: Net trade in goods was a drag on growth in Q2.

9 July 2025 Eurozone Monitor German GDP growth likely ground to a halt in Q2, stung by net trade

• Net exports warn of a downside surprise in German Q2 GDP; we look for zero growth. 
• Manufacturing and services are upside risks to Q2 growth in Germany; construction was a drag. 
• The upturn in real M1 growth points to accelerating German GDP growth from early 2026 onwards.

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, Germany, May 2025

In one line: Still improving, and surveys point to a strong finish to Q2.