In one line: Hot, but all eyes on tariffs this morning.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- President Trump will soon impose tariffs on imports from the EU, but the details are still up in the air.
- A 10pp increase in tariffs on EU goods is all but fully factored in by the drop in EURUSD since Q3.
- EZ headline and core inflation beat the consensus in January; still no perfect landing at 2% in sight.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Unemployment is still rising; soft state CPIs can’t be extrapolated to the HICP.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Still (very) friendly to ECB doves.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: A poor finish to 2024, but probably not as bad as initially reported.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We now see EZ headline inflation unchanged at 2.4% in January, with a 0.1pp dip in the core, to 2.6%.
- Selling price expectations are rising in Germany and France, but core inflation will dip further in Q1.
- Is the consumption recovery in the Eurozone finally kicking in? We think so.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: GDP growth slowed at end-2024 despite continued strength in the labour market. ESI points to better times ahead.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: A drop, as expected, but the details point to robust domestic demand.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The ECB eased policy further, as expected, but it is now likely closer to neutral than markets think.
- EZ GDP stagnated in Q4, held back by declines in the two largest economies, Germany and France.
- The first national inflation figures for January lead us to raise our call for EZ core inflation, due out today.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Ignore headline fall; M1 growth is still accelerating.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Poor, but far from conclusive for consumption growth in Q1.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: A rebound, but still subdued overall.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
ECB HAS FURTHER ROOM TO EASE POLICY...
- ...BUT WE ARE CLOSER TO NEUTRAL THAN MARKETS BELIEVE
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Rising political uncertainty likely contributed to tightening credit standards in Q4…
- …But we need more data to tell whether this is the start of a sustained shift; we doubt it.
- French consumer confidence rebounded in January but still signals upside risk to unemployment.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Great, but beware the likely seasonal boost in services.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Downturn stalled, but no upturn in sight.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: New year relief, but still subdued.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The ECB will cut its deposit rate by 25bp this week; discussions on the level of neutral will intensify.
- Upside risks to energy, downside risks to the core in the national CPI and HICP data this week.
- EZ PMIs firmed in January, supporting our call for stronger EZ GDP growth in the first quarter.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Poor, but details better than the headline.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
