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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)

10 October 2024 Eurozone Monitor Germany likely fell into a technical recession in Q3

  • We're lowering our Q3 growth forecast for Germany; we now think the economy fell into recession… 
  • …But beware, Nowcast models in Germany are less reliable than usual; Q3 GDP is a true wild card. 
  • France won't cut public spending by €40B next year, but a deficit of 5% of GDP is doable, and then some.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Trade Balance, France, August 2024

In one line: The boost to GDP from rising net exports is reversing, we think.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

9 October 2024 Eurozone Monitor No recovery in German industry, despite August's jump in output

  • German manufacturing came roaring back in August, but output fell again in September. 
  • We estimate industrial production in Germany fell by 1.4% q/q in Q3, a touch worse than in Q2. 
  • Look past the fall in spending on non-durables for a more optimistic story on the EZ consumer.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

8 October 2024 Eurozone Monitor Bond yields are too low relative to the medium-term inflation outlook

  • Comments from BdF Governor François Villeroy de Galhau all but guarantee a 25bp rate cut this month. 
  • EZ rate expectations and bond yields are too low relative to the medium-term outlook for inflation. 
  • We’ve lowered our bond yield forecasts, but still see bear-steepening of the yield curve next year. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Factory Orders, Germany, August 2024

In one line: Depressed by large orders; upside risks for industrial production in August.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

7 October 2024 EZ Monitor Raising our Eurozone house price forecast; the sector is recovering

  • Eurozone house price growth rebounded strongly in Q2, and we think further increases are likely.
  • We see signs that housing demand is picking up healthily amid falling interest rates.
  • We now think house prices will rise by 1.5% in 2024 after they slid by 1.2% in 2023.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

30 September 2024 EZ Monitor All set for a third 25bp ECB rate cut in October? Probably

  • French and Spanish inflation data lend support to ECB doves pushing for an October cut...
  • ...But beware of whiplash in market pricing, if the German and Italian data don’t play ball.
  • French consumer spending isn’t going anywhere in Q2; German jobless claims are still rising.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

September 2024 - EZ Economic Chartbook

THE ECB IS UNDER PRESSURE TO EASE MORE QUICKLY

  • BUT “QUE SERA SERA”

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

26 September 2024 Eurozone Monitor France's budget deficit has to be reined in, but how?

  • French households celebrate falling inflation, but confidence-sapping tax hikes loom on the horizon. 
  • France’s deficit will hit 6% of GDP soon without corrective action; markets won’t let that slide. 
  • Spending cuts alone won’t reduce the deficit in France, tax hikes will be needed too.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

24 September 2024 Eurozone Monitor Sinking September PMIs put an October rate cut back in the frame

  • The EZ PMIs plunged in September, as the boost from the Summer Olympics ended. 
  • Our EZ Nowcast for Q3 GDP looks ugly, but we think it is misleadingly pessimistic at this point. 
  • The ECB will consider an October rate cut if non-energy goods inflation stays subdued in September.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

23 September 2024 EZ Monitor INSEE business survey data stabilising, but still weak overall

  • INSEE survey data show further signs of stabilisation in September but remain soft overall.
  • The Summer Olympics boosted Q3 GDP growth in France, but a payback looms in Q4.
  • We look for a big fall in the EZ PMIs today as the Olympics boost to French services reaches an end.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: INSEE Business Confidence, France, September 2024

In one line: Better, but still consistent with weak growth in domestic demand.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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