Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist) Gabriella Dickens Freya Beamish (Chief Asia Economist)
- German industrial output is still trailing leading indicators; revisions or a rebound are coming.
- Nowcast models for Q1 GDP in Germany look strong despite weakness in industry and retail sales data.
- Industrial output in Spain jumped in March, helping production in the EZ as a whole to a small gain.
- EZ retail sales fell slightly in March; or did they? We think sales in Germany will be revised higher.
- Factory orders in Germany jumped at the end of Q1, pointing to near-term strength in industrial output.
- The EZ construction PMI sank further in April, but the survey is likely overstating the weakness.
- We doubt that a rapprochement between the US and Iran will get the ECB off the hook next month.
- Wage growth in the EZ remains subdued, but risks are tilting to the upside for next year.
- French industry and Italian retail sales ended Q1 on a solid note; the fall in EZ April PMIs is confirmed.
- Swiss inflation jumped in April, and is set to average 1% over the medium term…
- …As second-round effects from higher energy prices will lift domestic inflation sustainably in H2.
- The SNB will remain on the sidelines, since the energy shock is also set to hit growth.
- Swiss inflation likely rose further at the start of Q2, lifted primarily by higher inflation in import prices.
- German manufacturing data for March should reveal gains in both production and new orders.
- Retail sales in the EZ fell in March, but we think the German headline will be revised higher next month.
In one line: See you in June, for a hike.
In one line: In wait-and-see mode, but we suspect with a hawkish bias.
In one line: Nasty, and it will get nastier still soon.
In one line: Q1 GDP boosted by consumption and net trade; labour market cracking in Q2?
In one line: Lifted by a further surge in energy inflation.
In one line: Grim, but appear unduly depressed by seasonals.
In one line: Stung by falling energy consumption and plunge in construction.
In one line: Services flattered by plunge in package holiday inflation.
In one line: Real M1 growth is holding up, for now.
In one line: Temporary relief from plunge in package holiday inflation.
THE EUROZONE IS SLIPPING BACK INTO STAGFLATION…
- …THE ECB WILL FOCUS ON INFLATION WITH TWO RATE HIKES THIS YEAR
- The ECB held fire but clearly hinted at a rate hike in June, unless a miracle happens in the Middle East.
- Inflation in the EZ hit 3.0% in April and is on track for 3.5% in May, with the 2026 average at 3.0%.
- EZ GDP growth slowed in Q1, on the eve of the energy shock, and growth will stay subdued in Q2.
- We now see a relatively small rise in Eurozone HICP inflation in April, by 0.1pp, to 2.7%.
- Energy inflation climbed further in the EZ, but the core fell due to a temporary slide in services inflation.
- EC selling price expectations rose across the board in April, and recession probability remained low.
- ECB consumer inflation expectations jumped in March, to 3%, on a three-year basis.
- The ECB’s bank lending survey points to tightening credit standards and weakening loan demand.
- Markets are still pricing the path for the ECB, based on inflation, inflation expectations and the oil price.
In one line: In the footsteps of the PMI and IFO.
