In one line: No signal of a cut in September; we look for such a signal at the press conference.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Construction fell back in Q2, after a decent Q1.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Services is sticky as ever, and it won’t drop meaningfully anytime soon.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The September meeting is “wide open” according to Ms. Lagarde; markets see it differently.
- Easing inflation, softening wages and falling profit margins should take a September cut over the line…
- …But we are now less certain on a cut than we were before; all eyes on ECB “sources” in coming days.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Inflation in the Eurozone was little moved in June; it will probably hold steady in July.
- Upside risks from services and energy now loom for EZ inflation but we think September’s rate cut is safe.
- Our forecasts point to a Q4 rebound in core inflation; will the ECB look through this and cut in December?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The ECB will likely open the door to further easing this week, teeing up a second rate cut, in September.
- Market expectations are converging on three cuts between now and March; the ECB is fine with this.
- One week ahead of the EZ Q2 GDP data, Nowcast models are subdued; we don’t buy them.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Core is settled around 2%; headline should fall further from August onwards.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- German services inflation, ex-rents, is still sizzling, at just under 5%, but it will fall soon.
- Core inflation in Germany will drop further between now and the end of the year, to just over 2.5%.
- The Summer Olympics will likely lift French core inflation by 0.1pp in July, and by 0.3pp in August.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Falling, and survey data point to further declines ahead.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Decent, but not enough to prevent a Q2 decline.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- EZ private-sector balance sheets are healthy; this dulls the monetary policy transmission mechanism.
- The private sector’s interest-rate-sensitivity has almost halved compared to before the GFC.
- Strong private balance sheets, fiscal activism and labour-hoarding will keep ECB policy rates elevated.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Marine Le Pen’s RN fell flat on its face in the French parliamentary elections. The centre (left) holds on.
- The path to a working government in France is unclear, but OAT-Bund spreads have likely peaked.
- Germany’s trade surplus jumped in May, due mainly to a crash in imports; the July Sentix dropped.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: A nasty plunge in manufacturing, but don’t forget rising services output.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Friday’s industrial production data for Germany, France and Spain made for difficult reading.
- The recovery in EZ manufacturing was still missing in Q2, but we look for better in H2.
- The trend in retail sales remains flat, but they still likely picked up in Q2, and services spending rose.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Swiss inflation edged lower, despite an uptick in services; a further, albeit marginal, fall is likely.
- We look for two more SNB rate cuts, taking the policy rate to 0.75% by year-end; markets see fewer cuts.
- The appointment of Martin Schlegel as the new SNB Chairman points to continuity in the rates outlook.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Virtually unchanged, but still on track for around 2% by August.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Headline inflation fell marginally in June, but the core was stable; no rate cut in July, but September is on.
- Rising global shipping costs present little upside threat to core goods inflation, for now.
- Services inflation will remain hot in the near term, but surveys point to widening downside risks.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone