EZ Datanote: Unemployment, Germany, June & ECB Inflation Expectations, EZ, May 2025

In one line: German unemployment rate won’t hold steady for much longer; inflation expectations likely to continue to fall.

2 July 2025 Eurozone Monitor June's EZ inflation rise will more than reverse in July and August

• Headline inflation edged up to the ECB’s 2% target in June, as energy deflation unwound a touch. 
• Lower energy and core inflation will pull the rate down to 1.8% in July, where it will stay in August. 
• This further drop in inflation over the summer should be enough for a 25bp rate cut in September.

EZ Datanote: State CPIs, Germany, June 2025

In one line: In line with our call for slightly softer German inflation in June. 

EZ Datanote: Money Supply, EZ, May 2025

In one line: EZ money and credit data still positive on economic outlook.

1 July 2025 Eurozone Monitor EZ inflation likely edged up in June; risks tilted to no change

• Total HICP inflation prints for the Big Four suggest EZ headline inflation edged up to 2.0% in June.
•  The ECB strategy review suggests the central bank is doing the right thing with the right tools; go figure! 
• Money data still point to upside risks to GDP, but don’t capture what is happening in net trade.