EZ Datanote: Final PMIs, Eurozone, March 2024

In one line: Liftoff?

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Inflation, Switzerland, March 2024

In one line: A downside surprise, as in the EZ.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

5 April 2024 Eurozone Monitor Swiss CPI implies more SNB cuts; EZ house prices fell in Q4

• The fall in Swiss inflation in March solidifies our view that more SNB rate cuts are on the way this year.
• EZ house prices fell in Q4 and were down by 1.1% in 2023 overall; we look for another 1% drop this year.
• The PMI adds to the evidence that Spain’s economic outperformance continued in Q1; we concur.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, Eurozone, February 2024

In one line: Staying where it's been for most of the past year.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

4 April 2024 Eurozone Monitor Core inflation in March softer than implied by the headline

• EZ inflation surprised to the downside in March, but not enough for the ECB to pull the trigger next week.
• Services inflation was sustained by the early Easter in March; it will come down sharply in April.
• We expect EZ headline inflation to stabilise around 2% from August through to Q1 next year.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Final Manufacturing PMI, EZ, March 2024

In one line: Still touch and go for the recovery in EZ industry.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

3 April 2024 Eurozone Monitor EZ inflation likely fell to just over 2% in March; what now, ECB?

• The drop in German inflation cements the outlook for a below-consensus EZ inflation report today.
• Why wouldn’t the ECB cut this month if inflation hit 2.2% in March? We can’t see why not either.
• Weakness in France and Germany is still holding back momentum in EZ manufacturing.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Money Supply, EZ, Feb; ISTAT Confidence, Italy, Mar & Unemployment, Germany, Mar

In one line:  Improvement in money supply continues; Italian business confidence rises & German unemployment will climb further. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Germany, February 2024

In one line: Ouch.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: ESI, EZ, March 2024

In one line: Consistent with a rise in EZ GDP this quarter.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: INSEE Consumer Confidence, France, March

In one line: Solid, but is fiscal tightening now a downside risk?

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

28 March 2024 Eurozone Monitor EZ CPI unlikely to have risen as much as Spanish CPI in March

• Spanish inflation rose 0.4pp to 3.2% in March, less than we expected...
• ...We are revising down our forecast for the Eurozone headline; it likely rose just 0.1pp to 2.7% in March.
• Spanish CPI is further along than the EZ headline, suggesting EZ inflation will rise further before it falls.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: GfK Consumer Confidence, Germany, April

In one line: Pointing to a recovery in consumption, albeit a tepid one.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

27 March 2024 Eurozone Monitor Is a rebound in German spending still on? We think so, just about

• German consumer confidence remains depressed, but the headlines are poor indicators of spending. 
•  Rising real income growth and a stabilisation in the labour market are tailwinds for German consumers… 
•  ...But early-Q1 data on retail and car sales point to near-term downside risks for consumption growth.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

26 March 2024 Eurozone Monitor How will the ECB deal with inflationary fiscal tightening?

• The ECB faces a unique challenge in thinking about fiscal policy; fiscal tightening is now lifting inflation.
• We estimate that the unwinding of fiscal stimulus is now boosting EZ headline inflation by 0.4pp...
• ...In a fight for every percentage point to get inflation to target, this could prevent ECB rate cuts.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Current Account, Eurozone, January 2024

In one line: Boosted by a soaring surplus in goods.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, Eurozone, March 2024

In one line: Lifted by strong momentum in Southern Europe.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone