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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Daily Monitor

22 August 2024 Eurozone Monitor Construction resumed its fall in Q2; more declines are on the way

  • Construction output jumped in June but still fell over the second quarter as a whole… 
  • ...This is consistent with a drop in construction capex, which accounts for nearly half of investment in GDP. 
  • The outlook for the sector is bleak; it will remain a drag on growth for the rest of this year.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

21 August 2024 Eurozone Monitor Markets still too optimistic on ECB easing this year

  • EZ inflation data suggest market pricing for 70bp-worth of easing this year is much too ambitious. 
  • The ECB will cut by 25bp in September; we still see a second cut in October, but this is a very close call. 
  • Inflation in food, core goods and energy are all set to firm in Q4, and services inflation will fall only slightly.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

20 August 2024 Eurozone Monitor Some wage growth indices are rising, but the ECB will still cut

  • Negotiated wage growth likely eased in Q2 even as compensation per employee probably held steady. 
  • Hourly labour cost data are the wild card; we doubt they will prevent an ECB cut in September... 
  • ...But early Q3 indicators, pointing to a rebound in wage growth, cast a shadow over a cut in October.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

16 August 2024 Eurozone Monitor Energy inflation will fall in coming months, but Q4 upside risks loom

  • Energy inflation remains on track for a big fall in coming months, but it will rebound into year-end.
  • EZ headline inflation will fall to within touching distance of 2% in August, but will snap back in Q4.
  • Swiss GDP outpaced the Eurozone average in Q2, as industry fared better than we anticipated.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

15 August 2024 Eurozone Monitor GDP growth in Q2 is confirmed, despite another drag from industry

  • The 0.3% increase in Eurozone GDP in Q2 was confirmed, despite industry remaining in recession. 
  • The service sector again drove growth; we do not trust the reported fall in service production in May. 
  • Productivity is not sliding as fast as in recent quarters; the ECB will welcome this development.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

14 August 2024 Eurozone Monitor Don't look, but EZ equities are priced for poor returns

  • The Eurostoxx 50 is currently priced for negative medium-term returns, based on book value. 
  • Margins are a wild card for EZ equities, but unless they remain near record highs, prices will fall further. 
  • We look for a further 5-to-10% decline in EZ equities as margins compress and earnings growth slows.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

13 August 2024 Eurozone Monitor Italy raises tax for wealthy...it's not enough; SNB tries to weaken CHF

  • Italy’s new wealth tax on foreign income will help public finances but won’t balance the books… 
  • ...Spending needs to come down, and significantly, to get Italy away from a near 6% deficit this year.
  • As expected, the SNB intervened to stem the rise in the franc last week; more CHF sales will be needed.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

9 August 2024 Eurozone Monitor Swiss GDP preview: GDP growth underperformed the EZ in Q2

  • Swiss industry likely had another tough quarter in Q2 and services turnover data to May disappoint. 
  • We doubt GDP fell, however, as implied by the PMI; it has underestimated growth since Q4 2022. 
  • We have pencilled in zero growth in Switzerland in Q2, after a 0.3% quarter-on-quarter increase in Q1.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

8 August 2024 Eurozone Monitor Is Germany in recession? We don't think so, but it's close

  • German manufacturing output rebounded modestly in June, but likely fell back in July. 
  • Hard data are now consistent with the reported GDP decline in Q2, but what happened to consumption? 
  • We’re nudging down our Q3 GDP growth forecast in Germany by 0.1pp to 0.2% quarter-on-quarter.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

7 August 2024 Eurozone Monitor The ECB won't panic, but one more near-term cut is now a decent bet

  • The ECB will provide liquidity via LTROs before resorting to an emergency rate cut. 
  • We now think the ECB will cut by 25bp in September and October, but not in December. 
  • Markets now agree with our SNB call, so we’re sticking to our guns for two more cuts this year.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

6 August 2024 Eurozone Monitor Are we seeing an unsustainable housing boom in Spain? Unlikely.

  • House prices in Spain are currently higher than during the house price bubble in 2005-to-2008… 
  • ...But the current increase doesn’t look unsustainable and household finances are sound. 
  • We see little scope for a sharp correction in house prices in the coming quarters in Spain.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

2 August 2024 Eurozone Monitor The EZ labour market was solid in Q2, despite softening surveys

  • Eurozone unemployment rose slightly in June, but the underlying trend is still flat. 
  • Surveys point to downside risks to employment growth and upside risks to unemployment in H2… 
  • …Yet our own GDP growth forecasts point to a better near-term outlook.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

1 August 2024 Eurozone Monitor September ECB rate cut looks safe, but December less so

  • Inflation was slightly hotter than we expected in July but is still on track for a sharp fall in August. 
  • Disinflation in core goods and food will reverse soon, creating a challenge for the ECB in Q4. 
  • We still see an ECB rate cut in September, but no longer in December; we now have two cuts in H1-25. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

31 July 2024 Eurozone Monitor Solid Q2 GDP headline in the EZ, but the details are on the soft side

  • Germany was a laggard in Q2, again; GDP jumped in Spain, and rose solidly in Italy and France. 
  • We think the Q2 GDP numbers have increased the probability of a second ECB rate cut in September. 
  • German HICP inflation was hot, but Spain’s was soft; we still see EZ inflation stable at 2.5% in July.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

30 July 2024 Eurozone Monitor Not all inflation expectations are made alike; which are best?

  • The ECB’s CES suggests young people’s inflation expectations have increased since the pandemic… 
  • …This, in turn, implies that tail-risks for inflation have shifted to the upside, and above 2%. 
  • Relative inflation expectations for women and low-income workers seem correlated with wage growth.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

26 July 2024 Eurozone Monitor Which leading indicators in the Eurozone should we trust?

  • Plunging French and German business confidence raises the probability of a rate cut in September… 
  • …but we’re sceptical whether these data should be trusted as reliable leading indicators for Q3 GDP. 
  • Our index of the credit impulse, M1 growth and credit standards points to stronger EZ GDP growth.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

25 July 2024 Eurozone Monitor How worried should you be about the falling PMIs? Not very, yet

  • The EZ composite PMI is on the verge of falling below 50; will it matter for Q3 growth? Probably not.
  • Manufacturing remains the weak spot, according to the PMIs, while services are still relatively robust.
  • The EZ output price PMI in services fell further in July; inflation will follow, eventually. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

24 July 2024 Eurozone Monitor Super Tuesday likely to reveal that EZ Q2 GDP growth beat consensus

  • Q2 GDP data due next week will likely show a repeat of the Q1 figures in Germany, Italy and Spain… 
  • ...while GDP growth in France has probably doubled, to 0.4%, as services spending rocketed. 
  • So, we now think EZ GDP rose by 0.4% on the quarter, after 0.3% in Q1, 0.1pp higher than previously. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

23 July 2024 Eurozone Monitor German GDP likely rose further in Q2, at the same pace as in Q1

  • We’re flying half-blind on Q2 GDP data in Germany, but we’re lifting our forecasts slightly, all the same. 
  • Construction investment was a drag on growth in Q2, but consumers’ spending likely rebounded. 
  • Our forecasts for Germany for the rest of 2024 see domestic demand now rebounding.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

19 July 2024 Eurozone Monitor The ECB is less sure about a September rate cut than markets

  • The September meeting is “wide open” according to Ms. Lagarde; markets see it differently. 
  • Easing inflation, softening wages and falling profit margins should take a September cut over the line… 
  • …But we are now less certain on a cut than we were before; all eyes on ECB “sources” in coming days. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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