Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor Global
- Lending to the private sector is slowing at the margin but underlying momentum remains solid…
- ...Our measure of the credit impulse points to EZ GDP growth of around 0.5% q/q in Q4.
- Germany’s IFO survey adds to the message from the PMI that a rebound there will lead the way in Q4.
- Inflation data clearly suggest the ECB is now on hold, but other data have tilted dovishly recently.
- A delay to the implementation of ETS2 could be exactly what ECB doves need for a rate cut in Q4…
- …But our forecasts still imply that the Bank will need to lift its core inflation outlook, precluding a cut.
- The EZ general government budget deficit held steady in Q2, as revenue and expenditure both rose.
- It is likely growing now, as Germany has started to spend more earnestly, and will widen again next year.
- The EZ deficit will likely rise to 3.5% of GDP this year, 3.8% in 2026 and 4.0% in 2027, from 3.1% in 2024.
- Germany’s 2026 draft budget promises borrowing of close to 5% of GDP next year; can we believe it?
- A turn in the investment cycle is the key prerequisite for a pick-up in German growth next year.
- Risks are tilted to the downside for our upbeat 2026 forecasts, but leading indicators agree with us.
- GDP in Germany and Italy likely improved relative to Q2, but growth in France and Spain probably fell.
- EZ GDP growth is likely to have held steady, at just 0.1% quarter-to-quarter.
- Q4 is set to be a touch better, as the drag from net trade fades, thanks to falling imports.
- Trade figures indicate a significant dampening effect on EZ goods trade from US trade tariff hikes.
- The data show few signs of trade diversion and/or re-routing from China, but some price cuts.
- The EZ trade surplus will widen further to year-end, and the drag from goods trade on GDP will fade.
- Spain’s budget negotiations are non-existent; another rollover of the 2023 budget seems likely...
- ...Still, its deficit will shrink out to 2027, and in 2025 be inside the EU’s 3% limit.
- ECB doves point to downside inflation risks, but we still think the Q4 HICP data will move against them.
- Sébastien Lecornu plays his trump card, but will suspending pension reform be enough?
- Mr. Macron will come under rising pressure to call new elections if RN continues to rise in the polls.
- The cyclical improvement in France’s budget deficit looks set to continue in H2 as tax revenues rise.
- Germany will raise its public debt burden by more than €1T over the next decade; what will this fund?
- A sustained rise in defence spending to 3.5% ramps up the pressure on public finances from 2027.
- The German government’s plan implies front-loaded investment from special funds starting next year.
- German auto output rebounded in September, but will this be included in the first Q3 GDP estimate?
- Construction investment rose in Q3, but net trade and consumption likely remained sluggish.
- We now think the first Q3 GDP estimate in Germany will show that output fell by 0.2% quarter-to-quarter.
- Italy’s deficit will shrink this year but still exceed the EU’s 3%-of-GDP limit and the government’s target.
- Its 2026 budget plans are mildly expansionary, including a cut to taxes for middle-income earners…
- ...while little consensus on offsetting revenue-raising measures exists among the coalition.
- The reversal of tariff front-running is weighing on German export orders, but is the worst over?…
- …Revisions to sales data suggest that industrial output was weaker in Q3 than we thought.
- Early data indicate that EZ industrial production fell by 0.2% in August, partially reversing the rise in July.
- France has lost another Prime Minister; how many more times will Mr. Macron play the same hand?
- Eurozone retail sales and Spanish industrial production growth likely slowed in Q3.
- The PMIs point to continued weakness in EZ construction, but investor sentiment is still upbeat.
- Swiss inflation held at 0.2% for the third straight month; it will remain stuck near zero until Q2 2026.
- The SNB has said it will ignore negative inflation prints in the near term…
- ...We expect the next rate move to be up, in 2027, despite downside risks to our inflation forecasts.
- Decimals proved dovish in the September HICP, but the main message from the report is hawkish.
- We still see EZ inflation above 2% in Q4, which would make it difficult for the ECB to cut in December.
- We’re lowering our inflation forecasts slightly, but our baseline remains higher than the ECB’s.
- A hawkish tilt in the German and Italian HICP data leaves our forecast for the EZ HICP at 2.3%.
- We still see the glass as half-full for Q3 consumption in Germany and France, despite soft monthly data.
- German jobless claims ticked higher in September but will fall in October; employment is still subdued.
- Inflation in Spain rose by less than we expected, pulling down our EZ HICP forecast by 0.1pp, to 2.3%.
- The ESI rose in September and still signals low recession risk in the Eurozone.
- The IAB labour-market survey in Germany is on a tear, but other surveys are less optimistic.
- The Swiss National Bank held its policy rate at 0.0% yesterday, where we now think it will stay until 2027.
- The Bank said it was keeping its options open, but in our view the Chairman closed the door to more cuts.
- The next move in Swiss rates will be upward, despite inflation likely falling to year-end and downside risks.
- The IFO fell in September, offsetting temporary optimism after the jump in the PMI earlier.
- German surveys remain consistent with decent near-term growth in manufacturing and services.
- We still see weak growth in H2 2025, but the upturn in real M1 growth promises a much better 2026.
- The EZ composite PMI rose further in September, but the details were weaker than the headline.
- The outlook for services is improving, but new orders in manufacturing warn of a Q4 slowdown in output.
- ECB doves will need a clearer sign of weakness in the PMIs to push their case for a Q4 insurance cut.
