Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor Global
- Money data point to continued upside for the PMI, which fell in June; will it rebound?
- Credit figures are consistent with rising consumers’ spending and a rebound in investment soon.
- The first June surveys for Italy and Spain suggest downside risk in the former but strength in the latter.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Polls point to a parliament split down the middle in France, but the second-round vote is a wildcard.
- RN’s and NFP’s economic plans will anger bond markets and the EU; Mr. Macron will likely welcome this.
- Survey data so far point to only a modest hit to sentiment in France from rising political uncertainty.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Revisions show that Spanish GDP rose by 0.8% on the quarter in Q1, more than previously thought.
- More of the same is likely in coming quarters; survey and hard data are positive, especially in services.
- Spain’s GDP will likely leap by 2.8% this year, in contrast to 0.8% in the Eurozone as a whole.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- German surveys turned south in June, but don’t write off the idea of a rebound in growth just yet.
- Early hard data suggest GDP rose again in Q2, but a fall in construction will weigh on growth.
- Leading indicators tentatively hint at a bottom in German investment, but the rebound will be slow.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The SNB cut rates for the second straight meeting, and lowered its inflation forecasts...
- ...We look for another 50bp-worth of rate cuts this year, more than financial markets
- expect.
The Bank will have to match ECB cuts to prevent a significant appreciation of the CHF and deflation.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The BTP-Bund spread has risen in line with French spreads; it will increase further but then fall to 100bp.
- France and Italy are in an EDP, no surprise here; any new French government has limited spending room.
- Political uncertainty will keep the EURUSD below 1.10 for now, but 1.18 by year-end is a decent bet.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Inflation in the Eurozone was uncomfortably hot in May, but 2% over the summer is still a good bet.
- Surveys signal downward risks for services inflation, but sports events are upside risks over the summer.
- We think the ECB will cut its policy rate by 25bp in September, December and March.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The EZ hourly labour cost growth data were the final wage indicators to be published for Q1…
- ...The data confirm wage growth picked up in Q1, but mainly due to one-offs in Germany.
- Wage growth will slow in due course, but a July rate cut is off the table; September is not certain either.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Italy’s economy had a decent Q1 and will continue to grow this year...
- ...But a correction in investment remains on the cards and is now likely to come as soon as Q2.
- We forecast GDP growth of 1% in 2024, as in 2023, before 1.8% next year; risks remain to the downside
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The EU is about to hit Chinese EV producers with tariffs, but this is not a full-blown trade war.
- Services inflation is rising, judging by German May CPI, but leading indicators point to weakness soon.
- German bond yields should fall between now and end-2024, but they will rebound next year.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Le Pen’s RN is on track to become the biggest party in the National Assembly, but without a majority.
- What is the ECB watching over the summer to determine its move in September? We list the key data.
- Inflation data will support a rate cut in September, but what about wages, margins and productivity?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Europe has swung to the right in the EP elections, but not dramatically so; Greens and Liberals lost big.
- Snap parliamentary elections in France could well hand Marine Le Pen the job of prime minister.
- Would a RN government ruin the party’s chance of a successful presidential bid in 2027? Perhaps.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The ECB professes allegiance to data-dependency, but a September cut is now a bit more likely.
- We see two more 25bp cuts, in September and December, with risks tilted towards a third, in March.
- For the first time since hiking, the ECB seems confident that wage growth is, in fact, slowing.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The French sovereign debt rating downgrade passed without fanfare, but is it a sign of things to come?
- Industrial production in France rose at the start of Q2 and looks on track for a rebound after a poor Q1.
- The PMIs suggest a mild cyclical upswing is now underway in the Eurozone economy.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The trend in German jobless claims points to a rise in the national unemployment rate to above 6%.
- Surveys signal a rebound in employment growth, but the trend in vacancies is still depressed.
- Real wage growth in Germany soared at the start of 2024, but vacancies point to downside risks.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The ECB will cut its policy rate by 25bp this week, but the communication will be hawkish.
- How does the ECB stay open to further easing without pre-committing to cuts? We’re about to find out.
- We see little change to the ECB’s near-term inflation forecasts, assuming it is omitting the May HICP.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Inflation in the Eurozone likely rose a touch in May, to 2.5%, in line with the consensus.
- The EZ labour market is in rude health but poses no threat to the slowdown in wages and inflation, yet.
- The Swiss economy performed better than initially estimated in Q1, boosted by services.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Services inflation in Germany jumped in May; it will be grist to the mill of ECB hawks urging caution.
- Money supply growth in the Eurozone accelerated further in April, but lending growth remains slow.
- German consumer confidence adds to our optimism that a Q2 rebound in consumption is coming.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Some ECB policymakers are trying to keep the July rate cut alive; it likely will die this week, all the same.
- We’re lifting our growth forecasts for France to take into account the boost from the Paris Olympics.
- The inventory cycle in France will soon turn up, lifting GDP growth, even factoring in declining net exports.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The June rate cut is safe, but sticky Q1 negotiated wage growth will prevent another one in July.
- We now see the ECB easing by 25bp in June, September, October and December; no cuts in 2025.
- The May EZ PMIs add to our conviction that EZ GDP growth is continuing its tepid rebound in Q2.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone