Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Daily Monitor
- EZ inflation surprised to the downside in March, but not enough for the ECB to pull the trigger next week.
- Services inflation was sustained by the early Easter in March; it will come down sharply in April.
- We expect EZ headline inflation to stabilise around 2% from August through to Q1 next year.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The drop in German inflation cements the outlook for a below-consensus EZ inflation report today.
- Why wouldn’t the ECB cut this month if inflation hit 2.2% in March? We can’t see why not either.
- Weakness in France and Germany is still holding back momentum in EZ manufacturing.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Spanish inflation rose 0.4pp to 3.2% in March, less than we expected...
- ...We are revising down our forecast for the Eurozone headline; it likely rose just 0.1pp to 2.7% in March.
- Spanish CPI is further along than the EZ headline, suggesting EZ inflation will rise further before it falls.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- German consumer confidence remains depressed, but the headlines are poor indicators of spending.
- Rising real income growth and a stabilisation in the labour market are tailwinds for German consumers…
- ...But early-Q1 data on retail and car sales point to near-term downside risks for consumption growth.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The ECB faces a unique challenge in thinking about fiscal policy; fiscal tightening is now lifting inflation.
- We estimate that the unwinding of fiscal stimulus is now boosting EZ headline inflation by 0.4pp...
- ...In a fight for every percentage point to get inflation to target, this could prevent ECB rate cuts.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The SNB cut interest rates, beating other major DM central banks to the punch on easing policy.
- More easing is likely over the coming year; we look for 75bp of further cuts by December.
- The risks are to fewer cuts; the SNB sees inflation in line with its price-stability mandate out to 2026.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- It’s a close call, but we think the SNB will hold fire at today’s meeting and first cut in June instead.
- Risks are tilted towards a rate cut today; markets are pricing in 40% probability of a move.
- mItalian industrial production started the year on a weak footing, but EZ construction is holding up.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Hourly labour cost growth took a leg down in Q4, in line with other wage growth measures.
- Leading indicators suggest pay growth is easing again in Q1; we look for it to fall throughout 2024.
- The ECB can’t afford to wait for the all clear from wage negotiations to start easing policy.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- EZ inflation dipped in February, matching the first estimate; upside risks are now building for March.
- An upward surprise in the March and April inflation reports would put a June rate cut in jeopardy.
- We still struggle to see a perfect landing for inflation at 2%; how will the ECB respond to this?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone