Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Chartbook Global Weekly Monitor
A MODEST CYCLICAL UPTURN HAS BEGUN, AND RATES ARE FALLING
- …WILL POLITICAL UNCERTAINTY THROW A WRENCH IN THE WORKS?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The EZ PMI fell in June, but it rose solidly over Q2 as a whole; all eyes are now on the early Q3 data.
- A drop in the EZ manufacturing output PMI raises questions about the rebound in industry; a blip?
- The French PMIs were stung by political uncertainty; we think it will blow over by August.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Swiss inflation held steady in May but is likely to fall in the coming months, to around just 1% by August.
- Weak growth will drag down domestic inflation, and gas & oil prices point to a falling imported rate.
- The SNB will probably cut its key policy rate again this week, by 25bp to 1.25%; more cuts are likely.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- A mini-boom in EZ consumption is coming, judging by the trend in real disposable income growth.
- The inventory cycle reached a trough in Q1; gross capital formation will rebound from here.
- Net exports soared at the start of 2024 but will likely be a drag on growth for the rest of the year.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
THE FIRST ECB RATE CUT IS COMING...
- …BUT A JULY CUT IS OUT, AND SEPTEMBER IS AT RISK TOO
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- EZ services inflation snapped back in May; it will come down eventually, but this will take a while.
- The ECB will cut its policy rate this week, but hopes of a July cut are now lost; September is at risk too.
- EZ consumers’ spending, ex-services, fell in April, but this was mainly due to Easter seasonals in food.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- German GDP growth was propelled by construction and net exports in Q1; neither will be sustained…
- …but growth in manufacturing capex is bottoming out and real income growth is accelerating.
- We think GDP growth will slow in Q2, to 0.1%, as construction investment and net exports fall back.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- EZ headline inflation held steady in April, matching the first estimate; core inflation fell slightly.
- The near-term outlook for energy inflation has improved, but that will change if oil prices rebound.
- Services inflation is as sticky as ever and will likely rebound in May; insurance inflation is rocketing.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Polls point to more seats for the far-right in the European Parliament after June’s vote...
- ...This will have little bearing on policy, even where the EU has exclusive competencies, such as trade.
- Any hard-line recommendations from far-right MEPs will likely be watered down by the majority.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The EZ unemployment rate held steady in March, staying at 6.5% for the fourth straight month.
- Employment growth likely slowed in Q1, in line with the surveys and advance national data...
- ...And will slow to Q3 at least, lifting the jobless rate as labour-force growth stays strong.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We look for agreeable data this week; we see upside risk to GDP growth, and downward to core inflation.
- Money data point to a lift-off in GDP growth over the coming quarters, adjusted for the savings shift...
- ...But lending figures suggest we are right to think investment will remain depressed in H1.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
THE FIRST ECB RATE CUT IS COMING IN JUNE...
- ...IF THE INFLATION AND WAGE DATA COOPERATE
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The Eurozone is still an incomplete currency union, but we think it will carry on regardless.
- The pandemic and war in Ukraine show that inflation is possible even in a rapidly aging economy.
- Fiscal activism, inflation and higher interest rates are all here to stay in the EZ, for the foreseeable future.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Our preliminary forecasts for France and Germany point to downside risks to EZ core inflation in April.
- A VAT hike on gas in Germany and higher oil prices are near-term upside risks to energy inflation.
- Italy will struggle to shrink its budget deficit to 3% any time soon; will the EU take note?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: The ECB will cut in June, barring a significant shift in its Q2 forecasts.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Industrial production in the Eurozone likely jumped in February but fell over Q1 as a whole.
- Retail sales data point to a subdued EZ consumer in Q1, but the services numbers will look better.
- Our Nowcast model points to EZ GDP stagnating in Q1, but it is too downbeat; a 0.2% rise is more likely.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Early HICP numbers point to downside risks to EZ inflation, but beware Easter effects in Germany.
- A soaring French budget deficit in 2023 raises the risk of a confidence-denting income tax hike in 2024.
- The Eurozone money supply data are picking up, supporting a further rebound in the composite PMI.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
ECB MONETARY EASING WILL BEGIN SOON...
- ...APRIL IS LIVE, BUT JUNE IS MORE LIKELY
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The Eurozone PMIs suggest services activity is now rebounding; the outlook for Q2 is brightening.
- Germany and France are holding the EZ economy back; Southern Europe is doing the heavy lifting.
- We still see the euro area economy returning to growth in Q1, with a 0.2% increase in GDP.
Samuel TombsEurozone
- Interest-rate and core-inflation differentials still point to upside risks for EURUSD.
- We continue to believe EURUSD is good value below 1.10; a rise to 1.15 should be possible.
- Spain will continue to outperform despite the government ditching its attempt to set a budget.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
