Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Chartbook Daily Monitor
- EZ consumers’ spending likely rose by 0.4-to-0.5% in Q4, and we look for the same in Q1.
- We still think a stabilisation in the saving rate will underpin consumption growth this year.
- Consumer confidence data point to a sticky saving rate, but are an unreliable guide.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Huge volatility under the hood of German Q4 GDP; inventories and net trade are key for H1.
- We see full-year 2025 growth of 0.5% in Germany, lower than previously but above consensus.
- EZ negotiated wage growth retreated in Q4, after the one-off-related jump in Q3; further falls are likely
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The failure of FDP and BSW to reach 5% paves the way for a CDU/CSU and SPD coalition in Germany.
- Germany’s new government has its work cut out; fiscal reform and defence are at the top of the list.
- EZ inflation rose in January, but a sharp fall in energy inflation will pull the headline down in February.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Isabel Schnabel has added fuel to the idea that the ECB’s easing cycle will end soon; we agree.
- President Trump’s latest tariff threat—on cars, chips and drugs—would have a small impact on EZ GDP.
- The CDU/CSU will win the German election, but not by enough for a majority; brace for coalition talks.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Europe will need to raise annual defence spending by €250B-to-450B over the next eight years.
- A joint EU financing programme for defence is coming; it could be a big package, close to €1T.
- Inflation and a low multiplier will eat up most of the boost to real GDP from rising defence spending.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Political uncertainty is soaring in Europe, but EZ equities have never felt better; what’s up?
- We think markets are betting on another Hamiltonian moment in Europe, this time on defence policy.
- Europe will rise to the challenges it faces, but have markets bought into the hype too strongly?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- US reciprocal tariffs, ex-VAT inclusion, would raise tariffs for 26% of EZ exports to the US…
- ...But these account for just 4% of total EU exports to the US, so the hit to EZ GDP would be small still.
- Swiss GDP growth picked up in Q4, as we expected and despite soft surveys.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Swiss inflation fell in January, and has been within the SNB’s target range for 20 straight months.
- The decline, and a further probable fall in February, solidifies the need for another rate cut.
- March’s cut will likely be the last in the current easing cycle, as inflation rises above SNB estimates in H2.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Only around 40% of EU Resilience & Recovery Facility cash has been disbursed to member states.
- Bureaucracy, rising costs and supply-chain issues are holding back the pace of fund absorption.
- A lot needs to be done by August 2026 to mobilise remaining funds; not everyone will get there.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Bunds have hovered close to fair value since the beginning of the year, according to our models.
- US Treasuries and Schatz point to upside risks to Bund yields, but fundamentals pull the other way.
- Near-term risks to Bund yields are tilted to the downside, before bear-steepening in H2.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- US tariffs on steel and aluminium would have only a minimal direct impact on EZ exports and GDP…
- …But the constant threat of tariffs is raising uncertainty for firms, adding to downside risks for capex.
- The CDU/CSU remains in pole position in Germany, but it is ceding ground to the AFD.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- House prices rose by around 3.5% in 2024, much stronger than we were anticipating…
- …A recovery in demand and still-subdued supply point to a further pick-up, supporting consumption.
- German industry ended 2024 on a better note than we expected, according to advance turnover data.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Bonds rallied yesterday on dovish headlines in the ECB’s wage tracker, but the details beg to differ.
- The EU is ready to strike back at US tariffs, but we still see a low risk of a prolonged tariff spat.
- ‘Habemus budget’ in France; industrial output fell in December, but it will rebound in January.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Swiss GDP likely rose by 0.9% in 2024, much better than the 0.2% decline in neighbouring Germany.
- The US has not said it will raise tariffs on Swiss imports, but an EU-US trade tiff will still hurt slightly.
- We continue to think the SNB easing cycle will end in March, though risks are tilted towards further easing.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- President Trump will soon impose tariffs on imports from the EU, but the details are still up in the air.
- A 10pp increase in tariffs on EU goods is all but fully factored in by the drop in EURUSD since Q3.
- EZ headline and core inflation beat the consensus in January; still no perfect landing at 2% in sight.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
