EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, Germany, December 2025

In one line: Dovish!

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Germany, November 2025

In one line: Poor, but still consistent with slightly better growth in Q4.

8 January 2026 Eurozone Monitor December inflation sets up a tense Q1 for the ECB

• EZ inflation shifted dovishly in December, setting up a bigger drop in Q1 than the ECB expected… 
• …The ECB prefers to sit out near-term volatility in inflation; that preference will be tested in Q1. 
• German retail sales growth likely improved slightly over Q4, despite the fall in November.

PM Datanote: Advance Inflation, France, December 2025

In one line: Still very dovish. 

7 January 2026 Eurozone Monitor ECB doves get a late Christmas gift in Germany's December HICP

• Risks have swung to a downside surprise in today’s EZ HICP, and the ECB’s forecasts being too hawkish.
• Markets are currently pricing in almost no chance of a further rate cut in H1; that will change soon.
• The EZ PMI is holding on for a gain over Q4, but the direction of travel across the quarter is downward.

6 January 2026 Eurozone Monitor Week in preview: upside risk to EZ inflation, and mixed bag elsewhere

• We look for an upside surprise in this week’s EZ December inflation data, but all eyes are now on Q1. 
• Switzerland likely fell into deflation in December, but the SNB remains poised to hold rates steady in Q1. 
• We think EZ retail sales beat the consensus in November, but manufacturing likely weakened.

EZ Datanote: PMIs, Switzerland, December 2025

In one line: Dire straits in manufacturing, but big improvement in services.