Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Chartbook Datanotes Weekly Monitor
In one line: Unchanged at a weak level.
- Falling oil prices and a strong euro are playing into the hands of ECB doves, for now.
- Services inflation is a key upside risk in the June HICP, but we still see core inflation at 2% by August.
- Fiscal details and a US-EU trade deal could swing the September meeting in favour of ECB hawks.
In one line: At a one-year high, but still consistent with slower growth.
- German business surveys are on the rise, but the hard data are not; at least, not yet…
- ...The cabinet approved the 2025 supplementary budget; parliament must do likewise by September.
- The rise in public spending and capex will feed through only in Q4 or, more likely, from 2026.
In one line: Holding steady
In one line: Are we too downbeat on Germany?
In one line: Stuck in the mud, but also underestimating growth.
- The EZ PMI held steady in June, and averaged broadly the same in Q2 as in Q1…
- ...But EZ GDP will not repeat its 0.6% growth in Q1; we look for GDP to stagnate this quarter.
- Demand is recovering but, once tariff front-running ends, will likely correct; price pressures are easing.
In one line: Recovery from March and April’s drops has ended already
In one line: Stable, but weak.
In one line: A decent start to Q2.
- A firm commitment from Germany to spend 5% of GDP on defence would be a rug-pull for Bunds.
- Rising investor sentiment and calmness on the trade front point to decent June survey data this week.
- Early-Q2 data indicate upside risk to GDP growth in France, but we still look for just 0.1% q/q.
In one line: We were wrong; SNB opts for another small cut.
In one line: A September cut is still on, but the ECB will end up regretting it.
- The SNB shied away from a jumbo cut, opting for a 25bp reduction for its sixth straight policy rate cut.
- The policy rate is now at zero; we doubt the SNB can avoid negative rates for long…
- ...We now expect another 25bp cut in September but think the SNB will be back hiking next year.
- The EZ current account surplus crashed in April, pulled lower by net trade in goods and services.
- Portfolio in- and outflows in the Eurozone remain strong, but both are now likely peaking.
- Final EZ HICP data leave intact yesterday’s forecast update, save for a small revision to inflation in 2025.
In one line: Investor sentiment continues to rise.
- Inflation in the EZ will settle at 2.0% over the summer, with the core also hitting 2% by August…
- …This should be enough for a final 25bp ECB rate cut in September, to 1.75%, setting up hikes next year.
- We’re lowering our inflation forecasts for 2026, but we’re still well above the ECB’s June projections.
In one line: Tariff-front running boost to industry and trade fading in early Q2.
In one line: Energy and services pull headline down.
