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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Datanotes Daily Monitor

16 August 2024 Eurozone Monitor Energy inflation will fall in coming months, but Q4 upside risks loom

  • Energy inflation remains on track for a big fall in coming months, but it will rebound into year-end.
  • EZ headline inflation will fall to within touching distance of 2% in August, but will snap back in Q4.
  • Swiss GDP outpaced the Eurozone average in Q2, as industry fared better than we anticipated.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

15 August 2024 Eurozone Monitor GDP growth in Q2 is confirmed, despite another drag from industry

  • The 0.3% increase in Eurozone GDP in Q2 was confirmed, despite industry remaining in recession. 
  • The service sector again drove growth; we do not trust the reported fall in service production in May. 
  • Productivity is not sliding as fast as in recent quarters; the ECB will welcome this development.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

14 August 2024 Eurozone Monitor Don't look, but EZ equities are priced for poor returns

  • The Eurostoxx 50 is currently priced for negative medium-term returns, based on book value. 
  • Margins are a wild card for EZ equities, but unless they remain near record highs, prices will fall further. 
  • We look for a further 5-to-10% decline in EZ equities as margins compress and earnings growth slows.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

13 August 2024 Eurozone Monitor Italy raises tax for wealthy...it's not enough; SNB tries to weaken CHF

  • Italy’s new wealth tax on foreign income will help public finances but won’t balance the books… 
  • ...Spending needs to come down, and significantly, to get Italy away from a near 6% deficit this year.
  • As expected, the SNB intervened to stem the rise in the franc last week; more CHF sales will be needed.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

9 August 2024 Eurozone Monitor Swiss GDP preview: GDP growth underperformed the EZ in Q2

  • Swiss industry likely had another tough quarter in Q2 and services turnover data to May disappoint. 
  • We doubt GDP fell, however, as implied by the PMI; it has underestimated growth since Q4 2022. 
  • We have pencilled in zero growth in Switzerland in Q2, after a 0.3% quarter-on-quarter increase in Q1.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

8 August 2024 Eurozone Monitor Is Germany in recession? We don't think so, but it's close

  • German manufacturing output rebounded modestly in June, but likely fell back in July. 
  • Hard data are now consistent with the reported GDP decline in Q2, but what happened to consumption? 
  • We’re nudging down our Q3 GDP growth forecast in Germany by 0.1pp to 0.2% quarter-on-quarter.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, EZ, June 2024

In one line: Sales fell, but German data are missing again.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

7 August 2024 Eurozone Monitor The ECB won't panic, but one more near-term cut is now a decent bet

  • The ECB will provide liquidity via LTROs before resorting to an emergency rate cut. 
  • We now think the ECB will cut by 25bp in September and October, but not in December. 
  • Markets now agree with our SNB call, so we’re sticking to our guns for two more cuts this year.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

6 August 2024 Eurozone Monitor Are we seeing an unsustainable housing boom in Spain? Unlikely.

  • House prices in Spain are currently higher than during the house price bubble in 2005-to-2008… 
  • ...But the current increase doesn’t look unsustainable and household finances are sound. 
  • We see little scope for a sharp correction in house prices in the coming quarters in Spain.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Final PMIs, Eurozone, July

In one line: Still suggesting private sector activity stalled at the start of Q3.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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