Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Emerging Asia Daily Monitor
- The ECB will cut its policy rate by 25bp this week, but the communication will be hawkish.
- How does the ECB stay open to further easing without pre-committing to cuts? We’re about to find out.
- We see little change to the ECB’s near-term inflation forecasts, assuming it is omitting the May HICP.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Inflation in the Eurozone likely rose a touch in May, to 2.5%, in line with the consensus.
- The EZ labour market is in rude health but poses no threat to the slowdown in wages and inflation, yet.
- The Swiss economy performed better than initially estimated in Q1, boosted by services.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Services inflation in Germany jumped in May; it will be grist to the mill of ECB hawks urging caution.
- Money supply growth in the Eurozone accelerated further in April, but lending growth remains slow.
- German consumer confidence adds to our optimism that a Q2 rebound in consumption is coming.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Some ECB policymakers are trying to keep the July rate cut alive; it likely will die this week, all the same.
- We’re lifting our growth forecasts for France to take into account the boost from the Paris Olympics.
- The inventory cycle in France will soon turn up, lifting GDP growth, even factoring in declining net exports.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The June rate cut is safe, but sticky Q1 negotiated wage growth will prevent another one in July.
- We now see the ECB easing by 25bp in June, September, October and December; no cuts in 2025.
- The May EZ PMIs add to our conviction that EZ GDP growth is continuing its tepid rebound in Q2.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Is the idea of a July rate cut sinking without a trace? Isabel Schnabel seems to think so.
- Today’s Q1 negotiated wage growth data are a wild card; one-offs in Germany are the main upside risk.
- We agree with Ms. Schnabel’s assessment that the natural rate has increased, at least temporarily.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The EZ goods trade surplus widened in March, and net trade in goods likely boosted GDP in Q1.
- Advance data from China as well as surveys suggest this boost is disappearing in Q2...
- ...And we think rising imports means net trade is set to weigh on growth for the rest of the year.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Were it not for the superbonus, Italian investment likely would be falling off a cliff...
- ...Interest rates faced by firms are among the high- est, credit standards tight and loan demand sinking.
- The lagged hit from rising interest rates on Eurozone investment will fade later this year, but only slowly.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- EZ fiscal policy is now consolidating but will remainmuch looser than before the pandemic.
- We think the Italian government is too optimistic on its deficit-reduction this year, and until 2026 too.
- The path for Germany’s fiscal position will depend on spending, while revenues matter most in France.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- GDP growth in the Eurozone rebounded at the start of 2024, matching the initial estimate.
- A fall in German construction will weigh on EZ growth in Q2, but the overall upturn will continue.
- EZ employment growth slowed in Q1, but surveys suggest the worst is now over.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Indeed data show that EZ wage growth slowed further in April; a win for ECB doves.
- Catalonia election led to a win for PSC; can it garner a coalition to avoid a repeat election in the autumn?
- German services inflation will rise in May, as the Deutschland ticket falls out of the year-over-year rate.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Investor sentiment has further to climb, judging by the impressive rally in equities so far this month.
- Rising investor sentiment signals a continued rise in the PMIs, but seasonality suggests otherwise.
- All eyes on detailed services inflation this week for evidence that the fever is breaking.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Food inflation has declined steadily since peaking at 15.5% last year but now seems to be stabilising.
- Surveys suggest it will hold steady just below 3% for now, but falling food PPI points to further downside.
- Catalonia’s election will most likely lead to a PSC-led coalition government; Sanchez will be happy.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- EZ industry was a drag on GDP growth in Q1, despite German industry coming out of recession.
- February data confirm services led the rebound in EZ GDP in Q1 and will stay in the driving seat for now.
- The boost from construction appears to be reversing already, and the fall in the PMI in April bodes ill.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- German factory orders fell again in March, as capital and intermediate goods demand faltered...
- ...Turnover data suggest production figures will be better than expected today, but still down.
- Retail sales confirm the EZ consumer was still show- ing little interest in goods in Q1; will this change?
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Swiss inflation rose in April on the back of a broad- based increase in prices...
- ...It should fall again to near 1% in coming months, though, so the SNB can continue its cutting cycle.
- We continue to look for more rate cuts this year than the consensus; 75bp-worth.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Real rates are still rising sharply in the Eurozone; it makes sense for the ECB to cut rates soon.
- Bonds are not priced for the ECB deposit rate to stay at 4%; if they were, yields would be a lot higher.
- What are the ECB’s assumptions for rates underlying its inflation forecasts? Answers on a postcard…
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- EZ core inflation fell further in April; the June rate cut looks safe, but July’s is hanging in the balance.
- EZ GDP rose by 0.3% in Q1, in line with our forecast; country data suggest net trade was the main boost.
- Southern economies did the heavy lifting, again, and likely will continue to outperform this year.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Early April HICP data in Spain and Germany confirm that energy inflation rose, while core inflation dipped.
- We’re lowering our EZ headline inflation forecast by 0.1pp, to 2.4%; the core likely fell by 0.4pp, to 2.5%.
- The Irish economy sprang back to life in Q1; we still look for EZ GDP to have risen by 0.3% in the quarter.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- A pick-up in services production boosted French growth in Q1; Q2 is set for further improvement, just.
- Forecast upgrades in Germany and France mean we now estimate EZ GDP rose by 0.3% in Q1.
- Political uncertainty is increasing in Spain, as the Prime Minister mulls resignation.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone