Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
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Emerging Asia Daily Monitor Global Chartbook
- The French and Spanish economies are losing pace in early Q4, according to the hard data.
- Italian data for October were weak, but carry-overs suggest a better Q4 than Q3 anyway.
- The spike in German wage growth was likely due to one-offs; it will pull up the EZ total.
- German trade figures for October add to the run of positive figures for early Q4.
- Our nowcast model suggests we are right to look for an increase in GDP in Q4 after stagnation in Q3.
- Risks remain, however, as leading indicators point to renewed weakness in goods trade in November.
- German industry enjoyed a strong start to Q4 and points to a solid October for EZ industry.
- French and German construction data suggest EZ construction also had a decent October.
- The first investor sentiment gauge for December, while subdued, still implies upside risk to EZ GDP.
- The EZ composite PMI was revised up in November, pointing to stronger growth in Q4...
- ...But early hard data for October are weak, and the PMI points to softness in construction.
- Switzerland’s PMIs suggest recession risk remains despite the US-Swiss trade deal.
- Swiss inflation is now at the bottom end of the SNB’s 0-to-2% inflation target range.
- It will likely fall further in the near term, to a trough of -0.2% or so, before rising gradually.
- The SNB will ignore sub-zero inflation; it is focused on inflation in the medium term. SNB easing is over.
- EZ inflation surprised slightly to the upside in November, matching our forecast.
- Energy inflation is being lifted by widening refining margins but is still low, and set to plunge in January.
- Core goods inflation is likely stabilising at just over 0.5%, with services set to drift lower into 2026.
- Italian GDP was held back in Q3 by another drop in inventories; these should rebound next year…
- ...Growth will pick up in 2026 as the outlook for net trade is also now brightening.
- In Switzerland, GDP will bounce back in Q4 from the drop in Q3, but growth will slow next year.
- The acceleration in money and credit is easing, but both remain a bright spot for the EZ economy.
- The last set of business surveys for the month round up a month of largely hawkish data.
- It would take a downside surprise in inflation to push the ECB to cut in December; we doubt it will happen.
LITTLE IN THE DATA TO SUPPORT AN INSURANCE RATE CUT...
- The BTP-Bund spread has continued to fall in recent months, in line with our call.
- We look for it to slide to 20bp by mid-2026, its average in the run-up to the Global Financial Crisis.
- A higher Bund yield will still mean above-3% Italian yields though, keeping Rome’s debt costs high.
- German Q3 growth was hit by falling consumption, but the spending details are better than the headline.
- Investment in Germany is stabilising, but we’re yet to see evidence of the much hoped-for recovery.
- Jump in government spending was mainly due to welfare spending, but borrowing is rising fast.
- We think this week’s inflation data for November will continue to signal Eurozone inflation above 2% in Q4.
- The acceleration in money supply growth is easing, but it still indicates decent GDP growth.
- Early Q4 spending data are mixed: we see strength in France and Spain, softness in Germany.
- The EZ current account surplus rose marginally in September; a strong euro will bring it down in 2026.
- Foreign investors have moved away from EZ debt and piled into EZ equities over the past year.
- EZ construction output was flat in Q3, after declining in the previous quarter; Q4 will likely be a little better.
- EZ inflation edged down in October, but we still see a near-term rebound to 2.2%, before a fall in January.
- Refining margins are rising, boosting energy inflation, but the trend is still dovish overall.
- Core inflation is set for a small further rise in the near term, before a steady decline over H1 2026.
- Germany’s government will use fiscal policy to lower prices for consumers and firms next year.
- A subsidy to lower electricity prices for energy- intensive industry should lift output in early 2026.
- Germany is set to spend 0.3-to-0.4% of GDP on lower energy prices for consumers and firms.
- Swiss GDP fell in Q3, by 0.5% on the quarter, more than reversing the 0.2% increase in Q2.
- We no longer forecast a recession in H2, as US trade tariffs are now being lowered to 15% from 39%.
- Risks are to the downside, but we still doubt that the SNB will ease policy in December.
- EZ industrial production had a neutral impact on EZ GDP in Q3, if you believe Eurostat’s figures.
- Construction, meanwhile, is set to have been a drag, while services pulled GDP up by 0.2%.
- Surveys point to a jump in services output ahead, but meagre moves in construction and industry.
- ECB doves hoping for help from the euro to pull a December cut over the line will be disappointed…
- ...We expect a further softening in the euro to 1.15 by year-end, before a slight pick-up next year, to 1.17.
- Spanish and Italian surveys for early Q4 are too upbeat, in our view.
- The ECB is lining up a change in key personnel, but the key transitions are back-loaded to 2027.
- Isabel Schnabel’s departure will almost certainly result in a dovish tilt to the ECB’s communication.
- Investor sentiment has fallen marginally in November but still signals a solid composite PMI.
- A Q4 supply crunch in EZ auto production is averted, but the Nexperia controversy could flare up again.
- EZ auto production fell sharply in Q3, but leading indicators are improving in Germany.
- Auto sales in the EZ slowed in Q3, and leading indicators point to continued sluggish growth in Q4.
