Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
Emerging Asia Daily Monitor
- The SNB has lowered its inflation forecasts towards our estimates, blaming a stronger CHF.
- It is unhappy with EURCHF and uncomfortable with its new end-of-horizon inflation call.
- We thought another cut would come in December, and we now also think it will trim rates in March.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- French households celebrate falling inflation, but confidence-sapping tax hikes loom on the horizon.
- France’s deficit will hit 6% of GDP soon without corrective action; markets won’t let that slide.
- Spending cuts alone won’t reduce the deficit in France, tax hikes will be needed too.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Inflation has been lower than the SNB expected in Q3; it will cut its inflation forecasts this week…
- ...Thomas Jordan will go out with a bang, cutting rates for the fifth time as SNB Chairman.
- We look for at least one more cut, in December; risks are tilted towards less easing than we expect.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The EZ PMIs plunged in September, as the boost from the Summer Olympics ended.
- Our EZ Nowcast for Q3 GDP looks ugly, but we think it is misleadingly pessimistic at this point.
- The ECB will consider an October rate cut if non-energy goods inflation stays subdued in September.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The Fed’s 50bp rate cut increases the chance of an ECB rate cut in October, but only marginally…
- …The bar remains high for a third ECB cut next month; September core goods inflation is key.
- The EZ current account surplus has rebounded, but it will roll over in due course.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Falling energy inflation will pull headline HICP below 2% in September; we look for 1.8% year-over-year.
- Obsessing about services inflation is ‘so yesterday’; all eyes on non-energy goods in September and Q4.
- An October rate cut is back in play if core goods inflation fails to rebound in September.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The day of reckoning for Italy's public finances under the new EU fiscal rules has been delayed…
- ...Rome will submit its new MTFS plan 10 days late, at month-end; it needs more spending cuts.
- A sub-4% deficit this year is just wishful thinking; it will remain above 4% until 2026.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Mr. Draghi's report on European competitiveness could help Italy and France in their EDP negotiations.
- We agree with Mr. Draghi's broad conclusions, but he is too upbeat on productivity and inflation.
- EZ hourly labour cost growth remained high in Q2, but stagnant profits point to lower inflation.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The ECB cut by 25bp as expected; an October cut is now a tall order, but a December cut is back on.
- The rise in the ECB’s core inflation forecast will prevent the Bank from being mugged by reality in Q4.
- Early signs show that the ECB is noticing the sustained weakness in EZ domestic demand.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Germany’s economy is now in recession, judging by the trend in investment and survey data…
- …But we think rising consumers’ spending will just about keep the economy’s head above water in Q3.
- We’re lowering our German GDP growth forecasts for Q3, Q4 and Q1 by a cumulative 0.3pp.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Italian industry remains in recession in Q3, in line with its German counterpart…
- ...Spanish industry is now joining the recession party, though it is still faring better than elsewhere.
- The outlook for EZ industry remains bleak, especially given signs of still-weak import demand from China.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The ECB will cut its policy rate by 25bp this week, as widely expected, but what happens in Q4?
- We see a higher chance than markets of an October cut, and a lower probability of December easing.
- Will the ECB lift its Q4 core inflation forecasts this week? We think so, but how far?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- July’s German factory orders increase was driven by major orders; jump in June’s core orders was a blip.
- German industrial turnover figures point to output data today coming in well below consensus.
- EZ retail sales are still being compiled without German figures and cannot be relied upon.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- France’s budget deficit won’t shrink much this year, but tough negotiations on the 2025 budget loom.
- September is a key month for budget negotiations; a hung parliament points to high risk of a stalemate.
- The composite PMIs for Spain and Italy, despite rising in August, point to slower GDP growth in Q3.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Net trade drove the increase in Swiss GDP in Q2, while investment held it back.
- Growth will slow in Q3 but pick up again in Q4, such that GDP rises by 1.2% in 2024 the same as in 2023.
- Inflation was a touch higher than we expected in August, but the SNB will still cut twice more this year.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The small 0.2% q/q increase in Italian GDP in Q2 was confirmed; net trade held back growth...
- ...But so did construction investment, where dwellings investment is falling.
- Both trends will be offset by a rebound in inventories and stronger consumers’ spending in H2.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Spanish inflation was pulled down sharply in August by falling energy inflation.
- The German headline also took a leg down, to a 41-month low, despite stable services inflation.
- We now think EZ inflation data today will show a 2% print for August; EZ inflation is at the ECB’s target.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Money data suggest the savings rate is no longer rising, pointing to a pick-up in spending…
- ...Lending and credit figures are also turning up, consistent with stronger investment growth.
- For how long will money data remain positive? We see nascent signs they will turn down soon.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Destatis confirmed the decline in German GDP in Q2, despite still not publishing services data.
- Survey data for Q3 paint an ugly picture for the start of the second half of the year.
- We suspect surveys may be underestimating growth, but we will need to wait and see.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The downturn in the EZ composite PMI was halted by the Olympics in France; only temporarily we think.
- The PMIs point to firming growth in services, while manufacturing is still stuck in recession.
- A big drop in Q2 wage growth seals the deal for a September cut, and helps our call for an October cut.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
