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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

9 October 2024 Eurozone Monitor No recovery in German industry, despite August's jump in output

  • German manufacturing came roaring back in August, but output fell again in September. 
  • We estimate industrial production in Germany fell by 1.4% q/q in Q3, a touch worse than in Q2. 
  • Look past the fall in spending on non-durables for a more optimistic story on the EZ consumer.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

8 October 2024 Eurozone Monitor Bond yields are too low relative to the medium-term inflation outlook

  • Comments from BdF Governor François Villeroy de Galhau all but guarantee a 25bp rate cut this month. 
  • EZ rate expectations and bond yields are too low relative to the medium-term outlook for inflation. 
  • We’ve lowered our bond yield forecasts, but still see bear-steepening of the yield curve next year. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, EZ, August 2024

In one line: Probably underestimating the true strength in sales.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Factory Orders, Germany, August 2024

In one line: Depressed by large orders; upside risks for industrial production in August.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

7 October 2024 EZ Monitor Raising our Eurozone house price forecast; the sector is recovering

  • Eurozone house price growth rebounded strongly in Q2, and we think further increases are likely.
  • We see signs that housing demand is picking up healthily amid falling interest rates.
  • We now think house prices will rise by 1.5% in 2024 after they slid by 1.2% in 2023.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Industrial Production, France, August 2024

In one line:  Q3 will be better than expected for French industry. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Final PMIs, Eurozone, September 2024

In one line: Likely to fall further this month but also likely overdoing the weakness in the economy.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

4 October 2024 Eurozone Monitor Swiss inflation falls below 1% and has further to slide

  • Swiss inflation fell below 1% in September for the first time since 2021. 
  • Inflation averaged 1.1% in Q3, in line with the SNB’s call, but will fall further than the Bank expects in Q4. 
  • The door is wide open for further rate cuts; the SNB could take its key policy rate close to zero.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

3 October 2024 Eurozone Monitor Robust EZ labour market unlikely to derail further ECB easing

  • The Eurozone unemployment rate held at 6.4% in September and is likely to remain steady for now. 
  • The ECB also sees a broadly unchanged unemployment rate over the coming quarters. 
  • A still-tight labour market will prevent neither a slowdown in wage growth nor more ECB easing.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, Eurozone, September 2024

In one line: Fall in core confirmed & headline below the ECB’s target; October’s rate cut is a go

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

2 October 2024 Eurozone Monitor October's rate cut is on; deposit rate set to end 2024 at 3%

  • Headline inflation in the EZ fell below the ECB’s target in September for the first time since 2021.
  • Deeper energy deflation was the main drag, but core inflation also eased a touch.
  • We look for the ECB to cut twice more this year, by 25bp in both October and December.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, Germany, September 2024

In one line: German HICP inflation falls below 2% for the first time since March 2021; it will increase again in Q4. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

1 October 2024 Eurozone Monitor More reasons to add an October rate cut into the ECB profile

  • German HICP inflation is now below 2% for the first time since March 2021. 
  • As of September Italian inflation has been below 2% for a year, though it slid less than we thought. 
  • EZ inflation still likely fell to below the ECB’s target; today’s data will show it coming in at 1.8%.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: State CPIs, Germany, September 2024

In one line: German inflation likely fell in line with consensus. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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