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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

7 June 2024 Eurozone Monitor The ECB gets a cut over the line, and we'll get another in September

  • The ECB professes allegiance to data-dependency, but a September cut is now a bit more likely. 
  • We see two more 25bp cuts, in September and December, with risks tilted towards a third, in March. 
  • For the first time since hiking, the ECB seems confident that wage growth is, in fact, slowing.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

6 June 2024 Eurozone Monitor The sovereign debt downgrade in France that 'never happened'

  • The French sovereign debt rating downgrade passed without fanfare, but is it a sign of things to come? 
  • Industrial production in France rose at the start of Q2 and looks on track for a rebound after a poor Q1. 
  • The PMIs suggest a mild cyclical upswing is now underway in the Eurozone economy. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

5 June 2024 Eurozone Monitor Significant cracks still visible in Germany's labour market

  • The trend in German jobless claims points to a rise in the national unemployment rate to above 6%.
  • Surveys signal a rebound in employment growth, but the trend in vacancies is still depressed.
  • Real wage growth in Germany soared at the start of 2024, but vacancies point to downside risks.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

4 June 2024 Eurozone Monitor All set for a hawkish first 25bp rate cut by the ECB this week

  • The ECB will cut its policy rate by 25bp this week, but the communication will be hawkish.
  • How does the ECB stay open to further easing without pre-committing to cuts? We’re about to find out.
  • We see little change to the ECB’s near-term inflation forecasts, assuming it is omitting the May HICP.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

May 2024 - EZ Economic Chartbook

THE FIRST ECB RATE CUT IS COMING...

  • …BUT A JULY CUT IS OUT, AND SEPTEMBER IS AT RISK TOO

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, EZ, May 2024

In one line: Services too hot to handle, but the trend isn’t 4%.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Detailed GDP, Italy, 2024

In one line: Domestic demand, including inventories, rose; net exports plunged. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation & Consumers' Spending, May/Apr 2024

In one line: The HICP comes in hot; April spending dented by Easter seasonals.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Germany, April 2024

In one line: Disappointing, but don’t write off Q2 consumption just yet.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

3 June 2024 Eurozone Monitor Services inflation in the EZ as grim as ever midway through Q2

  • EZ services inflation snapped back in May; it will come down eventually, but this will take a while.
  • The ECB will cut its policy rate this week, but hopes of a July cut are now lost; September is at risk too.
  • EZ consumers’ spending, ex-services, fell in April, but this was mainly due to Easter seasonals in food.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

31 May 2024 Eurozone Monitor EZ headline inflation likely rose in May, matching the consensus

  • Inflation in the Eurozone likely rose a touch in May, to 2.5%, in line with the consensus.
  • The EZ labour market is in rude health but poses no threat to the slowdown in wages and inflation, yet. 
  • The Swiss economy performed better than initially estimated in Q1, boosted by services.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, Germany, May 2024

In one line: Jump in services inflation stands out like a sore thumb.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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independent macro research, Eurozone Document Vault, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence,