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Eurozone Publications

Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, France, May 2024

In one line: Was the rise in French private sector activity short-lived?

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, Germany, May 2024

In one line: Services leads the way while industry downturn is easing. 

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Advance PMIs, Eurozone, May 2024

In one line: Decent; services activity is firm, even as inflation pressures ease.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

24 May 2024 Eurozone Monitor ECB to cut rates in June, but the July reduction perished yesterday

  • The June rate cut is safe, but sticky Q1 negotiated wage growth will prevent another one in July. 
  • We now see the ECB easing by 25bp in June, September, October and December; no cuts in 2025.
  • The May EZ PMIs add to our conviction that EZ GDP growth is continuing its tepid rebound in Q2.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

23 May 2024 Eurozone Monitor Will ECB doves have their wings clipped by today's Q1 wage data?

  • Is the idea of a July rate cut sinking without a trace? Isabel Schnabel seems to think so.
  • Today’s Q1 negotiated wage growth data are a wild card; one-offs in Germany are the main upside risk.
  • We agree with Ms. Schnabel’s assessment that the natural rate has increased, at least temporarily.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Construction, Eurozone, March

In one line: A solid Q1, but output will fall back in Q2. 

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

22 May 2024 Eurozone Monitor Net trade will be a drag on EZ GDP growth in coming quarters

  • The EZ goods trade surplus widened in March, and net trade in goods likely boosted GDP in Q1.
  • Advance data from China as well as surveys suggest this boost is disappearing in Q2...
  • ...And we think rising imports means net trade is set to weigh on growth for the rest of the year.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

21 May 2024 Eurozone Monitor Where will investment fare worst in the EZ big four this year?

  • Were it not for the superbonus, Italian investment likely would be falling off a cliff...
  • ...Interest rates faced by firms are among the high- est, credit standards tight and loan demand sinking.
  • The lagged hit from rising interest rates on Eurozone investment will fade later this year, but only slowly.

Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

20 May 2024 Eurozone Monitor Sticky services inflation still the key threat to the outlook for rates

  • EZ headline inflation held steady in April, matching the first estimate; core inflation fell slightly.
  • The near-term outlook for energy inflation has improved, but that will change if oil prices rebound.
  • Services inflation is as sticky as ever and will likely rebound in May; insurance inflation is rocketing.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

17 May 2024 Eurozone Monitor EZ fiscal policy: will the best laid plans of governments go awry?

  • EZ fiscal policy is now consolidating but will remainmuch looser than before the pandemic.
  • We think the Italian government is too optimistic on its deficit-reduction this year, and until 2026 too.
  • The path for Germany’s fiscal position will depend on spending, while revenues matter most in France.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Detailed Inflation, France, April 2024.

In one line: The core should fall a bit further over the summer, but 2% is likely the new trend.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

16 May 2024 Eurozone Monitor The start of a period of sustained EZ GDP growth? We think so

  • GDP growth in the Eurozone rebounded at the start of 2024, matching the initial estimate.
  • A fall in German construction will weigh on EZ growth in Q2, but the overall upturn will continue.
  • EZ employment growth slowed in Q1, but surveys suggest the worst is now over.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

EZ Datanote: Detailed Inflation, Germany, April 2024

In one line: Soft, but beware the risk of a snap-back in services inflation in May.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

15 May 2024 Eurozone Monitor EZ wage growth trended lower at start of Q2 and will fall further

  • Indeed data show that EZ wage growth slowed further in April; a win for ECB doves.
  • Catalonia election led to a win for PSC; can it garner a coalition to avoid a repeat election in the autumn?
  • German services inflation will rise in May, as the Deutschland ticket falls out of the year-over-year rate.

Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone

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