EZ Datanote: Advance GDP & Unemployment, Eurozone, Q1/March 2026

In one line: Q1 growth undershoots expectations; labour market holding up, for now.

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, Eurozone, April 2026

In one line: Nasty, and it will get nastier still soon. 

EZ Datanote: Advance Q1 GDP, Italy, Q1 2026

In one line: The energy shock will hurt Italian growth more than other major EZ economies.

EZ Datanote: Advance Q1 GDP & April Unemployment, Germany

In one line: Q1 GDP boosted by consumption and net trade; labour market cracking in Q2? 

EZ Datanote: Advance GDP, Spain, Q1 2026

In one line: Beats expectations, but this strength won’t last

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, France, April 2026

In one line: Lifted by a further surge in energy inflation. 

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Germany, March 2026

In one line: Grim, but appear unduly depressed by seasonals. 

EZ Datanote: Advance GDP, France, Q1 2026

In one line: Stung by falling energy consumption and plunge in construction. 

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, Germany, April 2026

In one line: Services flattered by plunge in package holiday inflation. 

EZ Datanote: EC ESI, Eurozone, April 2026

In one line: Inflation expectations soar, sentiment slumps.

EZ Datanote: Money Supply, Eurozone, March 2026

In one line: Real M1 growth is holding up, for now. 

EZ Datanote: ISTAT Business Confidence, Italy, April 2026

In one line: Broad-based fall in confidence; inflation expectations soar.  

EZ Datanote: State CPIs, Germany, April 2026

In one line: Temporary relief from plunge in package holiday inflation. 

April 2026- EZ Economic Chartbook

THE EUROZONE IS SLIPPING BACK INTO STAGFLATION…

• …THE ECB WILL FOCUS ON INFLATION WITH TWO RATE HIKES THIS YEAR

1 May 2026 Eurozone Monitor ECB will hike in June, barring a miracle in global energy markets

• The ECB held fire but clearly hinted at a rate hike in June, unless a miracle happens in the Middle East.
• Inflation in the EZ hit 3.0% in April and is on track for 3.5% in May, with the 2026 average at 3.0%.
• EZ GDP growth slowed in Q1, on the eve of the energy shock, and growth will stay subdued in Q2.

30 April 2026 Eurozone Monitor We now see only a modest increase in EZ inflation in April

• We now see a relatively small rise in Eurozone HICP inflation in April, by 0.1pp, to 2.7%. 
• Energy inflation climbed further in the EZ, but the core fell due to a temporary slide in services inflation. 
• EC selling price expectations rose across the board in April, and recession probability remained low. 

29 April 2026 Eurozone Monitor ECB surveys paint a perfect, yet ominous, picture of EZ stagflation

• ECB consumer inflation expectations jumped in March, to 3%, on a three-year basis.
• The ECB’s bank lending survey points to tightening credit standards and weakening loan demand.
• Markets are still pricing the path for the ECB, based on inflation, inflation expectations and the oil price.

28 April 2026 Eurozone Monitor Swiss inflation rose further in April; prospects for growth look poor

• Swiss headline inflation is likely to pick up further as the disinflationary impact of the strong CHF eases.
• Second-round effects from the energy shock on core prices now look increasingly likely.
• The Swiss economy looks set for a spell of stagflation, just like its Eurozone neighbours.