EZ Datanote: Unemployment, Eurozone, January 2026

In one line: More hawkish data for EZ short-term bonds to digest.

February Chartbook - EZ Economic Chartbook

EUROZONE INFLATION IS SHIFTING HIGHER…

• …COULD THE ECB HIKE THIS YEAR?

EZ Datanote: Detailed GDP, Italy, Q4 2025

In one line: Surge in investment boosted Q4 growth. 

5 March 2026 Eurozone Monitor Deflation and negative rates in Switzerland both off the table

• Headline inflation in Switzerland held steady at 0.1% in February; deflation is unlikely going forward…
• …The SNB will stand pat in 2026 and will instead intervene in FX markets to stem currency strength.
• GDP growth in Italy picked up in Q4; we expect even stronger quarterly growth throughout 2026.

4 March 2026 Eurozone Monitor Markets now look for an ECB hike this year, but we doubt it

• Markets are speculating about an ECB hike in 2026, as energy prices surge and EZ core inflation jumps…
• …But we think the Bank will play it safe this month, opting to monitor the situation.
• The war in Iran and rising February core inflation pull up our 2026 inflation forecast by 0.2pp, to 2.1%.

3 March 2026 Eurozone Monitor War in Iran to add 0.2pp to EZ inflation between now and June?

• War in Iran will add 0.1-to-0.2pp to EZ inflation between now and June, at current oil and gas prices. 
• Inflation in liquid fuels will jump immediately, but gas and electricity prices will rise more slowly. 
• The ECB will view rising energy prices due to geopolitics as a negative supply shock. 

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, Germany, February 2026

In one line: A slight downside surprise, offsetting upside surprises in France and Spain. 

EZ Datanote: Detailed GDP, Switzerland, Q4 2025

In one line: Growth will pick up further in 2026.

EZ Datanote: Unemployment and State CPIs, Germany, February 2026

In one line: Stability in the labour market, for now; state CPIs tilt dovish. 

EZ Datanote: ECB CES, Eurozone, January 2026

In one line: Still well above 2%, but little impact on the ECB’s reaction function. 

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation & Consumers' Spending, France, Feb/Jan 2026

In one line: EZ inflation still looks dovish for February, but not enough to shift the ECB’s stance. 

2 March 2026 Eurozone Monitor EZ inflation at 1.7% in February not enough to sway the ECB

• Inflation in the EZ stayed well below 2% in February, but this is not enough to shift the ECB towards a cut.
• The Swiss economy resumed growth in Q4, and is poised for even stronger GDP in 2026.
• Switzerland will continue to negotiate a US trade deal, which should revive its industry and exports.

EZ Datanote: EC Sentiment, Eurozone, February 2026

In one line: Sentiment edges down, price pressures remain elevated. 

EZ Datanote: Money Supply, Eurozone, January 2026

In one line: A strong rise in M1 growth; did lending growth really slow?

EZ Datanote: ISTAT Business Confidence, Italy, February 2026

In one line: Slight deterioration, but consumers and retailers are upbeat.

27 February 2026 Eurozone Monitor EZ real M1 growth snaps back, but loan growth stumbles

• M1 growth leapt in January, but loan growth to non-financial firms slowed…or did it?
• The EC confidence survey fell in February, but the probability of a recession in the Eurozone is still low.  
• Business sentiment in Italy edged down this month, but we remain optimistic about growth in 2026.

EZ Datanote: INSEE Consumer Confidence, France, February 2026

In one line: Sentiment improved, but unemployment fears remain high.