Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
In one line: A rebound, but unemployment fears remain high.
In one line: Details are better than the headline.
- Consumer confidence in Germany is rebounding in June but still signals subdued spending growth…
- …The outlook for real income growth is improving though, and industry should still do well in Q2.
- The early read from Q2 nowcasts for France and Germany is for 0.1% GDP growth in both countries.
- A decline in oil prices as geopolitical tensions ease will help lower imported inflation in Switzerland.
- But three months of conflict have already done some damage. Domestic price pressures are building.
- Still, the SNB will stand pat throughout 2026, as inflation will remain within its 0-to-2% target range.
In one line: Grim, but services PMI is an unreliable indicator.
In one line: A modest rebound.
- Eurozone PMIs rebounded in June, despite weakness in Germany, and price indices cooled.
- The PMIs continue to signal downside risk to Q2 growth, but we still see GDP rising by 0.1%.
- Falling oil prices and cooling PMI price indices are consistent with the ECB holding fire in July.
- US-Iran talks remain fragile, but the near-term trend is clear; the White House wants lower oil prices.
- EZ survey data should reflect falling oil prices this week; price indices down and services sentiment up.
- Early hard data point to upside risk to Eurozone Q2 GDP growth and still-low recession risk.
- EV batteries are not included in the 70% content requirement for an EV to be ‘Made in Europe’.
- Local sourcing requirements risk making EU cars more expensive just when they need to be cheaper.
- The EU’s subsidies for buyers are no match for China’s subsidies for manufacturers.
- The SNB left its key policy rate unchanged at 0.00%, despite raising its inflation forecasts.
- Our 2027 inflation forecasts are still higher than the Bank’s; we think a rate hike is likely in 2027.
- Uncertainty around our call is high and financial markets expect a rate hike later than we do.
In one line: Still supportive of another ECB hike.
- Based on current oil prices, and our forecast for the June HICP, the ECB will hold fire in July…
- …but we still think the bank will tighten by 50bp in the end, so we now see a final hike in September.
- Inflation is now on track to undershoot the ECB’s forecast this year, but not in 2027.
- Eurozone labour costs were rising by just over 3% year-over-year at the start of 2026…
- …but more timely data suggest the trend in wage growth is now easing temporarily, to just over 2%.
- A jump in ZEW investor sentiment in June is the first evidence of US-Iran peace hopes hitting the data.
- A July hike from the ECB is now a long shot, but markets still see one more hike this year.
- Oil futures are still pricing in a 20% uplift to oil prices over the next 12 months compared to before the war.
- The June survey should have a spring in its step if the US-Iran peace deal survives the next few weeks.
- The SNB will leave rates on hold throughout 2026, unlike its neighbouring central bank, the ECB.
- The SNB’s Q2 projections for inflation in the medium term will be slightly higher than before.
- We expect the Chairman to reiterate the SNB’s willingness to curb the strength of the CHF.
In one line: The ECB will hike again, but when?
In one line: As expected, and further tightening is likely.
- The ECB hiked, and Ms. Lagarde struck a hawkish tone, backed by punchy new inflation forecasts.
- We’re maintaining our view of a back-to-back hike in July, though it remains a close call.
- The ECB is worried that a prolonged energy inflation shock is now driving second-round effects.
