EZ Datanote: Unemployment, Germany, March 2026

In one line: Stable, but renewed risks now loom. 

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation & Consumers' Spending, France, March/February 2026

In one line: Risks tilted to upside for EZ inflation; spending stung by weakness in both core and energy. 

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Germany, February 2026

In one line: Slowing before the energy shock. 

1 April 2026 Eurozone Monitor EZ inflation will hit 3% soon, prompting two hikes by the ECB

• Inflation in the Eurozone jumped in March, and will rise further in coming months, to 3%.
• We now see higher food inflation adding 0.1pp and 0.2pp to the EZ HICP in 2026 and 2027, respectively.
• Risks are tilted towards an April hike, but we still think the ECB will wait until June.

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, Germany, March 2026

In one line: Up and away, and more gains are coming. 

March 2026 - EZ Economic Chartbook

EUROZONE INFLATION IS SHIFTING HIGHER…

• …FORCING THE ECB TO RESPOND WITH TWO RATE HIKES THIS YEAR, AT LEAST

EZ Datanote: EC ESI, Eurozone, March 2026

In one line: A hawkish signal for the ECB. 

31 March 2026 Eurozone Monitor EZ headline inflation likely hit 2.6% in March, but core fell

• German inflation soared in March, as energy prices jumped; core inflation was stable. 
• We now see EZ headline inflation at 2.6% in March, with the core dipping by 0.1pp, to 2.3%. 
• EC selling prices and consumers’ inflation outlook jumped in March, tilting hawkishly for the ECB.

EZ Datanote: State CPIs, Germany, March 2026

In one line: German inflation on track to overshoot the consensus today, slightly. 

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Spain, February 2026

In one line: Fiscal support isn’t going to save Spanish consumer spending in H1.

30 March 2026 Eurozone Monitor EZ inflation about to feel the heat from the war in Iran

• Inflation in Spain jumped in March, but by less than expected due to timely tax cuts by the government.
• We see EZ headline and core inflation at 2.5% and 2.3%, respectively, in March; it will get worse soon.
• Comments from policymakers suggest the ECB is inching towards an April hike.

EZ Datanote: ISTAT Business Confidence, Italy, March 2026

In one line: Households already rattled by energy shock; industry yet to report feeling jittery.  

EZ Datanote: Money Supply, Eurozone, February 2026

In one line: Solid, before inflation saps real M1 growth. 

EZ Datanote: INSEE Business & Consumer Confidence, France, March 2026

In one line: Relatively stable, but consistent with downside risk to growth. 

EZ Datanote: GfK Consumer Confidence, Germany, April 2026

In one line: Stung by sharp declines in income, and overall, expectations. 

27 March 2026 Eurozone Monitor Soft survey data for March no match for a hawkish rate outlook

• March survey data show clear evidence of weakness from the war in Iran, but markets don’t care.
• Real M1 growth was still robust midway through Q1, but now comes the hit from rising inflation.
• Italian business confidence was resilient in March, but consumer sentiment is plunging.

EZ Datanote: IFO Business Climate Indicator, Germany, March 2026

In one line: Achtung!

26 March 2026 Eurozone Monitor Germany's economy can't catch a break these days

• German IFO business sentiment sinks as the energy shock hits, denting hopes of a recovery this year.
• We’re lowering our forecast for German investment, but still see decent growth in Q2 and Q3.
• Fiscal stimulus and the net balance between external demand and inventories are tailwinds for growth.