8 May 2026 Eurozone Monitor Poor EZ construction PMI and retail sales, but factory orders jump

• EZ retail sales fell slightly in March; or did they? We think sales in Germany will be revised higher. 
• Factory orders in Germany jumped at the end of Q1, pointing to near-term strength in industrial output.  
• The EZ construction PMI sank further in April, but the survey is likely overstating the weakness. 

7 May 2026 Eurozone Monitor ECB unlikely to be bailed out by a US-Iran deal

• We doubt that a rapprochement between the US and Iran will get the ECB off the hook next month.
• Wage growth in the EZ remains subdued, but risks are tilting to the upside for next year.
• French industry and Italian retail sales ended Q1 on a solid note; the fall in EZ April PMIs is confirmed.

6 May 2026 Eurozone Monitor Stagflation risk will keep the SNB on the sidelines this year

• Swiss inflation jumped in April, and is set to average 1% over the medium term… 
• …As second-round effects from higher energy prices will lift domestic inflation sustainably in H2.  
• The SNB will remain on the sidelines, since the energy shock is also set to hit growth.

5 May 2026 Eurozone Monitor Week in preview: robust German industry and rising Swiss inflation

• Swiss inflation likely rose further at the start of Q2, lifted primarily by higher inflation in import prices.
• German manufacturing data for March should reveal gains in both production and new orders.
• Retail sales in the EZ fell in March, but we think the German headline will be revised higher next month.

EZ Datanote: Advance GDP & Unemployment, Eurozone, Q1/March 2026

In one line: Q1 growth undershoots expectations; labour market holding up, for now.

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, Eurozone, April 2026

In one line: Nasty, and it will get nastier still soon. 

EZ Datanote: Advance Q1 GDP, Italy, Q1 2026

In one line: The energy shock will hurt Italian growth more than other major EZ economies.

EZ Datanote: Advance Q1 GDP & April Unemployment, Germany

In one line: Q1 GDP boosted by consumption and net trade; labour market cracking in Q2? 

EZ Datanote: Advance GDP, Spain, Q1 2026

In one line: Beats expectations, but this strength won’t last

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, France, April 2026

In one line: Lifted by a further surge in energy inflation. 

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Germany, March 2026

In one line: Grim, but appear unduly depressed by seasonals. 

EZ Datanote: Advance GDP, France, Q1 2026

In one line: Stung by falling energy consumption and plunge in construction. 

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, Germany, April 2026

In one line: Services flattered by plunge in package holiday inflation. 

EZ Datanote: EC ESI, Eurozone, April 2026

In one line: Inflation expectations soar, sentiment slumps.

EZ Datanote: Money Supply, Eurozone, March 2026

In one line: Real M1 growth is holding up, for now. 

EZ Datanote: ISTAT Business Confidence, Italy, April 2026

In one line: Broad-based fall in confidence; inflation expectations soar.  

EZ Datanote: State CPIs, Germany, April 2026

In one line: Temporary relief from plunge in package holiday inflation.