EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation, Eurozone, November, 2025

In one line: Too hot for a December cut, but dovish data in food and core goods.

EZ Datanote: Unemployment, Eurozone, October 2025

In one line: Steady near record lows.

3 December 2025 Eurozone Monitor November HICP seals the deal for the ECB to hold rates this month

• EZ inflation surprised slightly to the upside in November, matching our forecast.
• Energy inflation is being lifted by widening refining margins but is still low, and set to plunge in January.
• Core goods inflation is likely stabilising at just over 0.5%, with services set to drift lower into 2026.

2 December 2025 Eurozone Monitor Swiss and Italian GDP recovering; their fortunes will diverge in 2026

• Italian GDP was held back in Q3 by another drop in inventories; these should rebound next year…
• ...Growth will pick up in 2026 as the outlook for net trade is also now brightening.
• In Switzerland, GDP will bounce back in Q4 from the drop in Q3, but growth will slow next year.

EZ Datanote: State CPIs & Unemployment, Germany, November

In one line: Upside risk to German core inflation.

EZ Datanote: Detailed GDP, Switzerland, Q3 2025

In one line: Q4 will be better.

EZ Datanote: ECB Consumer Inflation Expectations, EZ, October 2025

In one line: Households' inflation expectations stubbornly above ECB target.

EZ Datanote: Advance Inflation & Consumers' Spending, France, Nov/Oct 2025

In one line: Downside risk to EZ core inflation, relative to our forecast.

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Spain, October 2025

In one line: Spanish households' spending spree is coming to an end.

EZ Datanote: Retail Sales, Germany, October 2025

In one line: Plateauing after strong growth earlier in the year.

1 December 2025 Eurozone Monitor A jump in Germany's HICP keeps the EZ at 2.2% in November

• A hawkish German HICP keeps our forecast for Eurozone headline inflation at 2.2% for November…
• …but the details in Friday’s early EZ inflation numbers, however, tilt dovish, especially for the core.
• EZ retail sales likely had a slow start to Q4, due to weakness in Spain and Germany.

EZ Datanote: ESI, EZ, November 2025

In one line: Another survey suggesting ECB easing is over.

EZ Datanote: Money Supply & ISTAT Business Confidence, EZ/Italy, Oct/Nov 2025

In one line: Consistent with faster EZ GDP growth.

EZ Datanote: GfK Consumer Confidence, Germany, December 2025

In one line: Decent headline, but mixed details.

28 November 2025 Eurozone Monitor Thursday's data were for ECB hawks; easing is over in the EZ

• The acceleration in money and credit is easing, but both remain a bright spot for the EZ economy. 
• The last set of business surveys for the month round up a month of largely hawkish data. 
• It would take a downside surprise in inflation to push the ECB to cut in December; we doubt it will happen.

November 2025 - EZ Economic Chartbook

LITTLE IN THE DATA TO SUPPORT AN INSURANCE RATE CUT...

• …ECB EASING IS OVER

27 November 2025 Eurozone Monitor BTP-Bund spread has further to fall this year and in early 2026

• The BTP-Bund spread has continued to fall in recent months, in line with our call. 
• We look for it to slide to 20bp by mid-2026, its average in the run-up to the Global Financial Crisis. 
• A higher Bund yield will still mean above-3% Italian yields though, keeping Rome’s debt costs high.

EZ Datanote: INSEE Consumer Confidence, France, November 2025

In one line: Stabilising, but downside risks loom. 

EZ Datanote: Detailed GDP, Germany, Q3 2025

In one line: Stung by falling consumption and another hit from falling net trade.