In one line: Poor, and it will get worse at the start of Q2.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Floods mean the risk to our call for Spanish GDP to ease slightly in Q4, to 0.6%, is for a bigger slowdown.
- It would take a significant hit to GDP for Spain to underperform the rest of the big four though.
- French industry rose over Q3, despite the fall in September; it is unlikely to increase again in Q4.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Decent GDP data support investor sentiment but it remains subdued.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Little to suggest the rut in industry is ending, despite increase.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Sell EURUSD and bonds if you’re convinced that Mr. Trump will win Tuesday’s US election.
- Leading indicators for EZ investment are downbeat, but growth still has room to rebound, a touch.
- Capacity utilisation rates point to robust growth in services capex, and the inventory cycle is turning.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Swiss inflation surprised to the downside in October, falling to a 40-month low of just 0.6%.
- The headline will likely be further below the SNB’s call in Q4, so we now look for even more easing.
- A floor exists, however; the SNB is heading towards the zero lower bound.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
ECB DOVES HAVE THE UPPER HAND
- BUT THEY WILL STRUGGLE TO PUSH THROUGH 50BP IN DECEMBER
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Downside surprise, SNB will have to ease more than we previously thought.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: A big blow to hopes of a 50bp cut in December.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- A trio of strong data tilts the balance of risk further in favour of a 25bp rate cut in December.
- Core inflation was firmer than expected in October, and it will increase a touch in November too.
- The ECB battle over the neutral rate has begun; Ms. Schnabel likely sees a relatively high number.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Little in the GDP data to support an accelerated ECB easing cycle.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Recession averted (again), labour market weakness continues and upside risks to October inflation.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Disappointing; was the hit from construction investment bigger than we thought?
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Stellar again; inflation increase driven by energy base effects
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Decent, but nothing to write home about ex-Olympic boost.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- EZ GDP rose more than we and the ECB had expected in Q3, and growth picked up from Q2.
- France, Spain and Germany all contributed positively, while GDP stagnated in Italy.
- Advance CPI data in Germany and Spain point to upside risks to EZ core inflation today.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
