In one line: Industry is a key reason Spain outperformed in Q1.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Held back by a plunge in energy output; core production did better.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Going nowhere, but turnover jumped in February.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Industrial production in the Eurozone likely jumped in February but fell over Q1 as a whole.
- Retail sales data point to a subdued EZ consumer in Q1, but the services numbers will look better.
- Our Nowcast model points to EZ GDP stagnating in Q1, but it is too downbeat; a 0.2% rise is more likely.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The fall in Swiss inflation in March solidifies our view that more SNB rate cuts are on the way this year.
- EZ house prices fell in Q4 and were down by 1.1% in 2023 overall; we look for another 1% drop this year.
- The PMI adds to the evidence that Spain’s economic outperformance continued in Q1; we concur.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Staying where it's been for most of the past year.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- EZ inflation surprised to the downside in March, but not enough for the ECB to pull the trigger next week.
- Services inflation was sustained by the early Easter in March; it will come down sharply in April.
- We expect EZ headline inflation to stabilise around 2% from August through to Q1 next year.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: EZ inflation on track to undershoot the consensus tomorrow.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Still touch and go for the recovery in EZ industry.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The drop in German inflation cements the outlook for a below-consensus EZ inflation report today.
- Why wouldn’t the ECB cut this month if inflation hit 2.2% in March? We can’t see why not either.
- Weakness in France and Germany is still holding back momentum in EZ manufacturing.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Early HICP numbers point to downside risks to EZ inflation, but beware Easter effects in Germany.
- A soaring French budget deficit in 2023 raises the risk of a confidence-denting income tax hike in 2024.
- The Eurozone money supply data are picking up, supporting a further rebound in the composite PMI.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone