In one line: Poor, but output likely rebounded in January.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Bonds rallied yesterday on dovish headlines in the ECB’s wage tracker, but the details beg to differ.
- The EU is ready to strike back at US tariffs, but we still see a low risk of a prolonged tariff spat.
- ‘Habemus budget’ in France; industrial output fell in December, but it will rebound in January.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Swiss GDP likely rose by 0.9% in 2024, much better than the 0.2% decline in neighbouring Germany.
- The US has not said it will raise tariffs on Swiss imports, but an EU-US trade tiff will still hurt slightly.
- We continue to think the SNB easing cycle will end in March, though risks are tilted towards further easing.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Hot, but all eyes on tariffs this morning.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Likely underestimating Swiss GDP growth still, and pointing to weaker inflation.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- President Trump will soon impose tariffs on imports from the EU, but the details are still up in the air.
- A 10pp increase in tariffs on EU goods is all but fully factored in by the drop in EURUSD since Q3.
- EZ headline and core inflation beat the consensus in January; still no perfect landing at 2% in sight.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Unemployment is still rising; soft state CPIs can’t be extrapolated to the HICP.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Spanish retail was on fire in December.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Still (very) friendly to ECB doves.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: A poor finish to 2024, but probably not as bad as initially reported.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- We now see EZ headline inflation unchanged at 2.4% in January, with a 0.1pp dip in the core, to 2.6%.
- Selling price expectations are rising in Germany and France, but core inflation will dip further in Q1.
- Is the consumption recovery in the Eurozone finally kicking in? We think so.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: No signal on the level of the neutral rate.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: GDP growth slowed at end-2024 despite continued strength in the labour market. ESI points to better times ahead.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: A drop, as expected, but the details point to robust domestic demand.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The ECB eased policy further, as expected, but it is now likely closer to neutral than markets think.
- EZ GDP stagnated in Q4, held back by declines in the two largest economies, Germany and France.
- The first national inflation figures for January lead us to raise our call for EZ core inflation, due out today.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Ignore headline fall; M1 growth is still accelerating.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
