In one line: The recession in industry continued in Q4.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Sinking; exports to the US likely stung by port strikes.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Relief in the PMIs today? We hope so, but the overall message from the survey will remain negative.
- Germany’s exports slumped in October, likely due in part to port strikes in the US.
- EZ manufacturing should remain on the back foot in Q4, while France gets a new Prime Minister.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The ECB eases by 25bp, with the SNB delivering a 50bp cut; bang in line with our expectations.
- Yesterday marks the start of a new regime for the ECB, but where is that neutral rate again?
- We think the SNB will ease again in March, by 25bp, which will be the final cut in this cycle.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Dovish, but staying open on the path in 2025 and the level of the neutral rate.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: As expected; no longer need for a restrictive policy rate. Where is neutral?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Martin Schlegel comes out swinging with jumbo cut at his first meeting as SNB Chairman.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Strong employment growth and a falling saving rate helped Spain outperform in 2024...
- ...These will be the reasons why Spanish GDP growth outpaces the rest of the big four again in 2025.
- Key risks to the outlook include political uncertainty and the crackdown on tourist appartments.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- This year our EZ GDP growth forecasts were decent; we were close to the final outcome 50% of the time.
- Our forecasts on inflation were on the money, mostly, notwithstanding a wobble at the start of the year.
- Our ECB calls have been correct at each meeting, and our SNB forecasts were right 75% of the time.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: The near-two-year-long recession in Italian industry is not over yet.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Services inflation will bring the headline down soon, but another increase in December is a decent bet.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Two-year yields will stay pinned close to 2% at the start of the year, before rising gradually…
- …But we expect the 2s10s Bund curve to start bearsteepening early next year.
- We think the early 2000s represent a good playbook for the ECB’s next moves on interest rates.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Politics weigh on investor sentiment at year end.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: That’s more like it, but Q3 details flatter to deceive.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Improving, but net trade in services will be a drag on growth in Q4.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Stung by a plunge in energy production; core manufacturing fell slightly.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- In France, Mr. Macron must go back to the drawing board as his government is ousted.
- German orders and French industrial production show industry was still on the back foot in October…
- ...Clouds continue to form on the horizon, even if some boost will come from pre-tariff US orders.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Down but will likely recover to year-end.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
