- The EZ unemployment rate held steady in March, staying at 6.5% for the fourth straight month.
- Employment growth likely slowed in Q1, in line with the surveys and advance national data...
- ...And will slow to Q3 at least, lifting the jobless rate as labour-force growth stays strong.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: A setback, in line with the surveys.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Ooof a big increase, but inflation is still within the SNB’s target range.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line : Grim, but the reality on the ground is likely better.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Swiss inflation rose in April on the back of a broad- based increase in prices...
- ...It should fall again to near 1% in coming months, though, so the SNB can continue its cutting cycle.
- We continue to look for more rate cuts this year than the consensus; 75bp-worth.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Real rates are still rising sharply in the Eurozone; it makes sense for the ECB to cut rates soon.
- Bonds are not priced for the ECB deposit rate to stay at 4%; if they were, yields would be a lot higher.
- What are the ECB’s assumptions for rates underlying its inflation forecasts? Answers on a postcard…
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: The core is still drifting lower, but slowly does it.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Strong but won’t prevent a rate cut in June.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Solid, but construction was boosted significantly by mild weather.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Italian GDP rises for third straight quarter, though a touch less than we thought it would.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: On a roll; outperformance to continue throughout this year
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Someone forgot the give French services inflation the memo, but core inflation fell, all the same.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Decent, but growth in domestic demand likely will slow a tad in Q2.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- EZ core inflation fell further in April; the June rate cut looks safe, but July’s is hanging in the balance.
- EZ GDP rose by 0.3% in Q1, in line with our forecast; country data suggest net trade was the main boost.
- Southern economies did the heavy lifting, again, and likely will continue to outperform this year.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone