In one line: Decent, and it will get better still.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Focus on the upturn in core orders.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The ECB professes allegiance to data-dependency, but a September cut is now a bit more likely.
- We see two more 25bp cuts, in September and December, with risks tilted towards a third, in March.
- For the first time since hiking, the ECB seems confident that wage growth is, in fact, slowing.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: A mild cyclical upswing is now underway.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The French sovereign debt rating downgrade passed without fanfare, but is it a sign of things to come?
- Industrial production in France rose at the start of Q2 and looks on track for a rebound after a poor Q1.
- The PMIs suggest a mild cyclical upswing is now underway in the Eurozone economy.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The trend in German jobless claims points to a rise in the national unemployment rate to above 6%.
- Surveys signal a rebound in employment growth, but the trend in vacancies is still depressed.
- Real wage growth in Germany soared at the start of 2024, but vacancies point to downside risks.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Is the rise in jobless claims accelerating?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- The ECB will cut its policy rate by 25bp this week, but the communication will be hawkish.
- How does the ECB stay open to further easing without pre-committing to cuts? We’re about to find out.
- We see little change to the ECB’s near-term inflation forecasts, assuming it is omitting the May HICP.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
THE FIRST ECB RATE CUT IS COMING...
- …BUT A JULY CUT IS OUT, AND SEPTEMBER IS AT RISK TOO
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Services too hot to handle, but the trend isn’t 4%.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Domestic demand, including inventories, rose; net exports plunged.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: The HICP comes in hot; April spending dented by Easter seasonals.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Disappointing, but don’t write off Q2 consumption just yet.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- EZ services inflation snapped back in May; it will come down eventually, but this will take a while.
- The ECB will cut its policy rate this week, but hopes of a July cut are now lost; September is at risk too.
- EZ consumers’ spending, ex-services, fell in April, but this was mainly due to Easter seasonals in food.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: The EZ labour market is in a good spot.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
- Inflation in the Eurozone likely rose a touch in May, to 2.5%, in line with the consensus.
- The EZ labour market is in rude health but poses no threat to the slowdown in wages and inflation, yet.
- The Swiss economy performed better than initially estimated in Q1, boosted by services.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
In one line: Jump in services inflation stands out like a sore thumb.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Eurozone
