Eurozone Publications
Below is a list of our Eurozone Publications for the last 5 months. If you are looking for reports older than 5 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
In one line: Rock-solid, but momentum is now slowing.
In one line: A rebound, but what happened to output in September?
- German factory orders rebounded in September, but the underlying trend in growth is still flat.
- Sales data signal downside risk to German industrial output, but they failed to capture the August plunge.
- Manufacturing in France is soaring, helped by aerospace, but surveys warn of a fall in early Q4.
HOPES OF A Q4 RATE CUT DRIFTING OUT OF REACH
- …AS GROWTH AND INFLATION OVERSHOOT ECB EXPECTATIONS
- We’re changing our inflation forecast methodology to a pure bottom-up model, based on the four majors.
- We will now be forecasting 38 individual HICP and CPI components every month.
- Our forecast for core inflation to settle above 2% is underpinned by dovish monthly pricing trends.
- Swiss inflation eased to within touching distance of 0%, the bottom of the SNB’s inflation target range.
- We look for further declines, in contrast to the SNB’s forecast for inflation to rise.
- Still, the SNB will hold off from further easing this year and probably also next year.
In one line: In line with our view of Swiss economic weakness.
In one line: Down, but the SNB will ignore it.
In one line: Only a washout in November can deliver an ECB rate cut now.
In one line: In line with our forecast; a coin toss between 2.1% and 2.2% on the EZ HICP.
In one line: Flat over Q3 as a whole.
In one line: Thin gruel, but a bit of clarity on the ECB’s ETS2 assumptions.
In one line: Nothing to see here, move along.
In one line: Pulled down by food inflation.
In one line: Nothing here for ECB doves.
In one line: Germany avoids recession, just; inflation down fractionally in October.
In one line: Not much of a rebound but faster growth is on the way.
- Robust core and headline inflation in October push December rate-cut hopes further into the long grass.
- Declines in food and core goods inflation will reverse this month; services will remain sticky until February.
- Energy inflation will fall a little further in November and December before plunging in January.
- The ECB took a breather in Florence; no change in policy and little in the way of guidance.
- Inflation in Spain and Germany, and our forecasts for Italy and France, signal EZ inflation at 2.2% today.
- EZ GDP rose by 0.2% quarter-to-quarter in Q3, breezing past the ECB’s September forecast.
