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8th Aug 2024 20:45EurozoneUK, Weekly Monitor

  • The link between the ECB’s policy rate and the Taylor Rule, which broke after the GFC, is reasserting itself.
  • A Taylor Rule with inflation expectations suggests the ECB is behind the curve on easing.
  • The model also indicates that the policy rate won’t fall as much as the consensus expects.

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Keywords for: 12 August 2024 EZ Monitor

independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence