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18th Jun 2024 17:55EurozoneDaily Monitor

  • The BTP-Bund spread has risen in line with French spreads; it will increase further but then fall to 100bp. 
  • France and Italy are in an EDP, no surprise here; any new French government has limited spending room. 
  • Political uncertainty will keep the EURUSD below 1.10 for now, but 1.18 by year-end is a decent bet.

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Keywords for: 20 June 2024 Eurozone Monitor

independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence