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22nd Jan 2025 10:02EurozoneDaily Monitor

  • Our baseline assumes a mild US tariff rate increase and therefore limited impact on EZ exports and GDP. 
  • If the US raises tariffs on all goods apart from EU goods, GDP could rise by twice as much this year. 
  • A big universal tariff increase instead could see a Eurozone recession and GDP falling by 1% or so.

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Keywords for: 24 January 2025 Eurozone Monitor

independent macro research, Pantheon Macro, Pantheon Macroeconomics, independent research, ian shepherdson, economic intelligence