In one line: Trade wars are not good for firm morale.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: As in France, domestic demand is rattled by tariff concerns and PMI shows clear signs of tariff front-running.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Fastest fall in demand for services since Covid pulls down the headline.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
- US - Few alarms yet in high-frequency data; business surveys weaker
- EUROZONE - A dovish, but also conditional, pivot from the ECB
- UK - Wages stay strong and inflation heading to 3.5% in April
- CHINA+ - China’s strategic pivot to ASEAN in the face of tariff pressures
- EM ASIA service is on holiday this week; returning next week
- LATAM - Mexico’s industrial rebound masks structural weakness and policy risks
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
In one line: Falling oil prices and a stronger euro are gifts to ECB doves.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
- US - Stagnation still lies ahead, as the trade war narrows, but deepens
- EUROZONE - The ECB will cut by 25bp this week but offer little guidance
- UK - Week in review: GDP jumps in February but tariffs will hurt growth
- CHINA+ - Beyond tit-for-tat tariffs: what Xi’s China is really fighting for
- EM ASIA - ‘Factory Asia’—ex-China—won’t break, even if April 9 tariffs return
- LATAM - Brazil battles inflation as activity surprises and fiscal risks linger
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- In one line: Rising food prices and FX volatility rekindle inflation risks amid slowing domestic demand.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Easing back on; three more cuts to go, from our vantage point.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: MXN depreciation clouds the outlook.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Expect at least two more consecutive 25bp cuts.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Sticky due to temporary shocks.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Short-lived, policy-induced deflation is over.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- US - Stagnation in GDP is now our base case, after the tariff madness
- EUROZONE - We think the EZ economy is now entering a technical recession
- UK - GDP likely unchanged in February as manufacturing drags on growth
- CHINA+ - China’s brinkmanship with the US likely aimed at forcing start of talks
- EM ASIA - GDP downgrades and more rate cuts, in the wake of ‘Liberation Day’
- LATAM - LatAm positioned to capitalise on trade shifts and tariff pressures
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
Healthcare driving payroll growth again; ongoing support will offset some tariff damage.
Samuel TombsGlobal
In one line: Holding at a 46-month low, but will rise again soon; Swiss retaliation to US tariff hikes poses an upside risk.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
- In one line: The nascent improvement is far from comprehensive.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
Tariff uncertainty is weighing on manufacturing.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)Global
- In one line: A poor headline, but the underlying trend remains positive.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
In one line: Soft enough for an April cut? We don’t think so.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
