In one line: Down, in line with our call that French GDP will slow again in Q4 after an Olympics boost in Q3.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
- In one line: Under pressure, as agriculture and industrial production weaken.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- US - Households’ liquid assets can’t alone sustain rapid spending growth
- EUROZONE - ECB doves won this month, but easing will be gradual from here
- UK - Budget will be stimulatory, despite large tax increases
- CHINA+ - China still likely to approve further targeted fiscal support
- EM ASIA - BoT’s long overdue cut is here; a December move is touch-and-go
- LATAM - Brazil faces slowdown amid inflation, drought and capex challenges
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
In one line: Growth indicators are rising in importance for policymakers.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: The first big win for ECB doves in a long time.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: The trump card ECB doves need for a third rate cut today.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
- In one line: Expect easing to resume in November.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: The overdue turn we’ve been waiting for; expect another follow-up cut in December.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Many more cuts to come, and potentially larger ones from December.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Blame the continued reversal of helpful food base effects; m/m trends are still improving.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: A quiet end to Q3 for two-way trade, the seasonal bump to the surplus aside.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- US - Core CPI inflation still on track for 2% in 2025, despite September pick-up
- EUROZONE - The ECB will cut rates this week, but will it strike a hawkish tone?
- UK - Disposable income growth will keep consumption ticking along
- CHINA+ - China still likely to approve further targeted fiscal support
- EM ASIA - No cut—yet—but the RBI tide has turned; all eyes on Q3 GDP
- LATAM - Brazil’s inflation remains benign despite electricity-related shock
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- In one line: So much for the RBI’s “resilient” growth outlook.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: On hold, as inflation likely to increase marginally in Q4 due to base effects.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Subdued inflation pressures, allowing Banxico to cut rates further.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: A benign inflation report despite a number of threats.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: No cut, but the sea change in policy is here.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- US - One suspicious-looking jobs number will not distract the Fed
- EUROZONE - Bond yields are too low relative to the medium-term inflation outlook
- UK - Governor Bailey lowers the bar to consecutive rate cuts
- CHINA+ - The lessons of 2015 for assessing China’s current outlook
- EM ASIA - Vietnam’s Q3 GDP shows the economy easily shrugging of Yagi
- LATAM - Colombia’s BanRep to keep cutting rates amid soft economic recovery
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
In one line: Likely to fall further this month but also likely overdoing the weakness in the economy.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Fall in core confirmed & headline below the ECB’s target; October’s rate cut is a go
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
