- US - The Fed will abandon plans for a modest, slow easing cycle
- EUROZONE - Sinking September PMIs put an October rate cut back in the frame
- UK - Services inflation close to MPC’s forecast kept rates on hold
- CHINA+ - Deep structural adjustment weighing down China’s domestic
- EM ASIA - How much can we trust the recovery in Indonesian exports?
- LATAM - Brazil’s BCB hikes Selic rate, with a hawkish tone, for now
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- US - Households’ balance sheets: Strong at first glance, fragile on closer look
- EUROZONE - Mr. Draghi’s EU competitiveness report clashes with new fiscal rules
- UK - MPC preview: rates on hold and little new guidance
- CHINA+ - BoJ striking a hawkish tone, though inflation is likely to slow
- EM ASIA - No denying that Indonesian consumers are still under the cosh
- LATAM - Mexico’s industrial sector facing stagnation, amid major challenges
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
In one line: As expected; plenty to talk about on the press conference.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
Don’t panic, it's noise not signal; the core PCE probably rose by about 0.22%
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- US - Weak job gains require rapid easing, but the Fed isn’t sensing the urgency
- EUROZONE - All set for a second 25bp rate cut from the ECB on Thursday
- UK - More short-term borrowing, only partially offset by tax hikes
- CHINA+ - Insipid core consumer inflation confirms sorry demand picture
- EM ASIA - BNM likely to enjoy a ‘Goldilocks’ moment, with a pause until 2025
- LATAM - Inflation moderates in Mexico, but political uncertainty looms large
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- US - Rapid Fed easing warranted despite solid consumer momentum
- EUROZONE - Italian growth will improve, despite construction capex dwindling
- UK- UK still vulnerable to energy price shocks
- CHINA+ - China’s aging housing stock another reason for people to save
- EM ASIA - Rural consumption reviving, but India’s GDP slowdown isn’t over
- LATAM - Brazil’s labour market starting to show signs of moderation
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- US - Dovish pivot complete; the Fed now has serious catching-up to do
- EUROZONE - Olympic boost to the EZ PMIs, and a big drop in Q2 wage growth
- UK- Higher output, lower inflation; MPC will still be wary of labour demand
- CHINA+ - China’s consumption struggles amid low confidence and policy challenges
- EM ASIA - BoT held, again, but is becoming anxious about domestic demand
- LATAM - COPOM’s cautious stance amid inflation risks and economic threats
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
In one line: Services boosted by the Olympics; manufacturing is sinking without a trace.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
- US - Homebase points to strong August payrolls, but we’re looking elsewhere
- EUROZONE - Some wage growth indices are rising, but the ECB will still cut
- UK - An even-handed MPC would look through the services undershoot
- CHINA+ - China’s July activity data point to softer economic momentum
- EM ASIA - Starting gun fired; the BSP likely to step up cuts to 50bp each
- LATAM - The service is on holiday, returning next week
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
In one line: Energy inflation will back in August and September; the core will remain high.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
- US - July core CPI data to leave the door wide open to rapid Fed easing
- EUROZONE - Is the Taylor Rule back as a forecasting tool in the Eurozone?
- UK - CPI preview: CPI inflation likely to rise to 2.3% in July
- CHINA+ - China’s inflation data confirm sluggish demand
- EM ASIA - Ignore the hype, consumption in the Philippines is in recession
- LATAM - Tackling inflation in Mexico and Chile is becoming difficult
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- US - Labor market weakening is gathering speed; decisive Fed easing is coming
- EUROZONE - SNB will still cut twice more; EZ labour market held up in Q2
- UK - Doves let loose... another rate cut is coming by year-end
- CHINA+ - China’s new urbanisation plan should ramp up domestic demand
- EM ASIA - Property price growth to remain elevated in Singapore till 2026
- LATAM - LatAm: Divergent monetary policies highlight complex landscape
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
In one line: Blame Italy for the upside surprise.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
- US - Q2’s rapid growth is unsustainable; expect a slowdown ahead
- EUROZONE - Solid Q2 GDP headline in the EZ, but the details are on the soft side
- UK - MPC preview: Almost ready to cut interest rates, cautiously
- CHINA+ - BoJ likely to move cautiously, mindful of fragile growth
- EM ASIA - Should we start to worry even more about inflation in India?
- LATAM - Trade balances improve in LatAm amid weaker currencies
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
In one line: Hanging on for dear life, but also likely underestimating the pace of growth.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: PMI lower by weakness in manufacturing; services and consumer sentiment are looking much better.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Poor, but GDP growth is stronger than implied by the headlines.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
