- US - Labor market weakening is gathering speed; decisive Fed easing is coming
- EUROZONE - SNB will still cut twice more; EZ labour market held up in Q2
- UK - Doves let loose... another rate cut is coming by year-end
- CHINA+ - China’s new urbanisation plan should ramp up domestic demand
- EM ASIA - Property price growth to remain elevated in Singapore till 2026
- LATAM - LatAm: Divergent monetary policies highlight complex landscape
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
In one line: Blame Italy for the upside surprise.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
- US - Q2’s rapid growth is unsustainable; expect a slowdown ahead
- EUROZONE - Solid Q2 GDP headline in the EZ, but the details are on the soft side
- UK - MPC preview: Almost ready to cut interest rates, cautiously
- CHINA+ - BoJ likely to move cautiously, mindful of fragile growth
- EM ASIA - Should we start to worry even more about inflation in India?
- LATAM - Trade balances improve in LatAm amid weaker currencies
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
In one line: Hanging on for dear life, but also likely underestimating the pace of growth.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: PMI lower by weakness in manufacturing; services and consumer sentiment are looking much better.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Poor, but GDP growth is stronger than implied by the headlines.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
- US - It’s much too early to make election-driven changes to macro forecasts
- EUROZONE - The ECB is less sure about a September rate cut than markets
- UK - Services inflation too strong for the MPC to cut rates in August
- CHINA+ - PBoC swings into action with early rate cuts to support growth
- EM ASIA - Malaysian 2024 GDP growth likely to beat government’s forecast
- LATAM - Mexico, Colombia: mixed inflation signals amid rate cut prospects
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
In one line: "September is wide open”, apparently.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: No signal of a cut in September; we look for such a signal at the press conference.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
- US - The June core PCE deflator likely rose by just 0.15%, below the Fed’s forecast
- EUROZONE - Will the ECB signal a September rate cut this week? We think so
- UK - Huge Labour majority will usher in modestly better growth
CHINA+ - China hits a soft patch in Q2, as domestic demand dwindles
- EM ASIA - Manufacturing recovery likely still on the cards in Singapore
- LATAM - Mexico, Colombia: mixed inflation signals amid rate cut prospects
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- US - Fears of a labor market downturn will supplant inflation worries at the Fed
- EUROZONE - Right wing in France suffers defeat, as do French pollsters
- UK - Huge Labour majority will usher in modestly better growth
- CHINA+ - PBoC preparing to boost long-term bond yields
- EM ASIA - June CPI laying the groundwork for BSP and BoT cuts next month
- LATAM - Brazil’s economic tightrope; the COPOM faces a balancing act
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- US - May’s PCE data show the Fed has already done more than enough
- Eurozone - We’re lifting our EZ GDP growth forecasts for Q2, by 0.1pp to 0.3%
- UK - Forecast review: Cutting through a storm of strong data
- China+ - China’s light industry outperforms heavy industry, amid soft demand
- EM Asia - Thailand’s year-end digital cash handout will be no silver bullet
- LatAm - Banxico holds rates steady but signals potential for future cuts
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
In one line: Virtually unchanged, but still on track for around 2% by August.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
- US - Trebling of shipping costs likely to add 0.04pp at most to core PCE inflation
- EUROZONE - EZ PMIs stumbled at the end of Q2; will they pick up again in Q3?
- UK - The MPC is itching to cut, so two rate reductions this year are likely
- CHINA+ - Japan’s stagflation conundrum; service sector at risk of stagnation
- EM ASIA - A reprieve for Singapore’s long-suffering semiconductor sector
- LATAM - Mexican economy falters amid challenges and uncertainty
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
In one line: Stung by renewed weakness in manufacturing.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Hit by political uncertainty, but no panic.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Transport, hospitality and insurance are key drivers of sticky services inflation.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
- US - The FOMC is too optimistic with its unemployment forecast
- EUROZONE - Markets still underestimating the amount of SNB easing
- UK - MPC preview: leaving open the timing of the first rate cut
- CHINA+ - BoJ commits to cutting JGB-buying, with details to be revealed in July
- EM ASIA - Indian inflation heading into H2: a shift from mundane to manic
- LATAM - Brazil’s economic activity losing steam amid mounting headwinds
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
Disinflation is back on track; expect two easings in today’s 2024 dot plot.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
