- US - The idea of a post-election “vibes” shift is unsupported by surveys
- EUROZONE - Our highlights in a busy week: 25bp ECB cut and soft Q4 GDP data
- UK - Speaking less but saying more; MPC speech frequency declining
- CHINA+ - Surprise fall in China’s PMIs signals recovery is far from assured
- EM ASIA - India’s January PMIs a reality check for a still-rosy consensus
- LATAM - Persistent inflation pressures in Brazil; Mexico’s recovery falters
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- US - Core inflation still likely to be lower by year-end in most tariff scenarios
- EUROZONE - The outlook for EZ inflation in Q1; a hot headline, but a soft core?
- UK - Ignore the December inflation drop; it’s still heading above 3% in April
- CHINA+ - China’s stimulus policies worked in Q4, but recovery won’t be easy
- EM ASIA - BI shrugs off IDR slump and starts 2025 with shock cut; a good move
- LATAM - Will headwinds from a protectionist US hurt the Mexican economy?
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- US - Payrolls are too noisy for December’s data to convincing signal an upturn
- EUROZONE - Will dovish Q1 inflation help bruised and battered EZ bonds?
- UK - GDP likely rebounded by 0.2% month-to-month in November
- CHINA+ - All eyes on China’s likely response to President Trump’s opening salvo
- EM ASIA - Don’t put much stock into India’s 6.4% FAE; the slowdown isn’t over
- LATAM - Brazil’s inflation ends 2024 on a good note, but the outlook is dismal
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- US - Payroll growth likely was sluggish again in December
- EUROZONE - All set for another ‘gradualist’ 25bp rate cut from the ECB
- UK - Forecast review: slow growth and fast inflation to keep MPC cautious
- CHINA+ - Korean business sentiment dives due to political crisis; trade risks rise
- EM ASIA - A few silver linings in otherwise soft December ASEAN PMI
- LATAM - Kicking off 2025 with monetary policy and economic challenges
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- US - How expansionary will fiscal policy really be under President Trump?
- EUROZONE - November PMIs won’t be enough for a 50bp cut in December
- UK - Wage growth will exceed the MPC’s forecast
- CHINA+ - Japan’s core inflation is steady, despite headline dip in subsidies
- EM ASIA - BI stays on hold, spooked by Trump, but easing is far from over
- LATAM - Banxico faces challenges despite falling inflation and weak demand
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- US - October core PCE likely up 0.30%, but details will reassure the FOMC
- EUROZONE - What are the SNB’s options as it edges closer to a policy rate of 0%?
- UK - Mr. Trump’s tariffs will have a limited direct impact on UK GDP
- CHINA+ - China’s household spending boosted by policy; GDP growth target in reach
- EM ASIA - Don’t get carried away by Thailand’s scorching hot Q3 GDP
- LATAM - The LatAm service is on holiday this week, returning next week.
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- US - Mr. Trump’s win likely slams the door on rapid Fed normalization next year
- EUROZONE - Early elections in Germany will pave the way for looser fiscal policy
- UK - A cautious MPC will cut rates once per quarter at most
- CHINA+ - China refrains from knee-jerk response to Mr. Trump’s election win
- EM ASIA - GDP growth in Indonesia slips below 5% in Q3, as we predicted
- LATAM - LatAm central banks to adopt a hawkish stance post-US election
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- US - The Fed would have to react to Trump’s trade tariffs this time
- EUROZONE - A Trump win would push EURUSD down, and yields up, on the day
- UK - Ms. Reeves torches Governor Bailey’s plans for rapid rate cuts
- CHINA+ - China’s PMIs point to stimulus gradually gaining purchase
- EM ASIA - The soft patch in ASEAN manufacturing continues
- LATAM - Mexico’s economy thriving in Q3, but outlook depends on US election
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- US - Slow growth in October jobs will be more than a Boeing and Milton story
- EUROZONE - Mr. Trump’s 10% tariff would barely make a dent in EZ GDP
- UK - The Budget is worth 25-to-50bp on Bank Rate
- CHINA+ - Japan’s election result makes BoJ rate path more uncertain
- EM ASIA - Manufacturing single-handedly drives Singapore’s scorching Q3
- LATAM - Bad start to Q3 for inflation in Brazil and Mexico, but it should improve
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- US - Households’ liquid assets can’t alone sustain rapid spending growth
- EUROZONE - ECB doves won this month, but easing will be gradual from here
- UK - Budget will be stimulatory, despite large tax increases
- CHINA+ - China still likely to approve further targeted fiscal support
- EM ASIA - BoT’s long overdue cut is here; a December move is touch-and-go
- LATAM - Brazil faces slowdown amid inflation, drought and capex challenges
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- US - Core CPI inflation still on track for 2% in 2025, despite September pick-up
- EUROZONE - The ECB will cut rates this week, but will it strike a hawkish tone?
- UK - Disposable income growth will keep consumption ticking along
- CHINA+ - China still likely to approve further targeted fiscal support
- EM ASIA - No cut—yet—but the RBI tide has turned; all eyes on Q3 GDP
- LATAM - Brazil’s inflation remains benign despite electricity-related shock
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- US - One suspicious-looking jobs number will not distract the Fed
- EUROZONE - Bond yields are too low relative to the medium-term inflation outlook
- UK - Governor Bailey lowers the bar to consecutive rate cuts
- CHINA+ - The lessons of 2015 for assessing China’s current outlook
- EM ASIA - Vietnam’s Q3 GDP shows the economy easily shrugging of Yagi
- LATAM - Colombia’s BanRep to keep cutting rates amid soft economic recovery
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- US - Only three indicators are useful in payroll forecasting; all are flawed
- UK -CPI inflation will be boosted by duties and school fees
- EM Asia-Thailand’s smaller cash handout will be even more trivial for growth
- EZ -October’s rate cut is on; deposit rate set to end 2024 at 3%
- LatAm - Banxico cuts rates as expected, opening door for further easing
- China+ - China’s policy shift puts growth target in reach; bold reforms lacking
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- US - The Fed will abandon plans for a modest, slow easing cycle
- EUROZONE - Sinking September PMIs put an October rate cut back in the frame
- UK - Services inflation close to MPC’s forecast kept rates on hold
- CHINA+ - Deep structural adjustment weighing down China’s domestic
- EM ASIA - How much can we trust the recovery in Indonesian exports?
- LATAM - Brazil’s BCB hikes Selic rate, with a hawkish tone, for now
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- US - Households’ balance sheets: Strong at first glance, fragile on closer look
- EUROZONE - Mr. Draghi’s EU competitiveness report clashes with new fiscal rules
- UK - MPC preview: rates on hold and little new guidance
- CHINA+ - BoJ striking a hawkish tone, though inflation is likely to slow
- EM ASIA - No denying that Indonesian consumers are still under the cosh
- LATAM - Mexico’s industrial sector facing stagnation, amid major challenges
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
Don’t panic, it's noise not signal; the core PCE probably rose by about 0.22%
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- US - Weak job gains require rapid easing, but the Fed isn’t sensing the urgency
- EUROZONE - All set for a second 25bp rate cut from the ECB on Thursday
- UK - More short-term borrowing, only partially offset by tax hikes
- CHINA+ - Insipid core consumer inflation confirms sorry demand picture
- EM ASIA - BNM likely to enjoy a ‘Goldilocks’ moment, with a pause until 2025
- LATAM - Inflation moderates in Mexico, but political uncertainty looms large
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- US - Rapid Fed easing warranted despite solid consumer momentum
- EUROZONE - Italian growth will improve, despite construction capex dwindling
- UK- UK still vulnerable to energy price shocks
- CHINA+ - China’s aging housing stock another reason for people to save
- EM ASIA - Rural consumption reviving, but India’s GDP slowdown isn’t over
- LATAM - Brazil’s labour market starting to show signs of moderation
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- US - Dovish pivot complete; the Fed now has serious catching-up to do
- EUROZONE - Olympic boost to the EZ PMIs, and a big drop in Q2 wage growth
- UK- Higher output, lower inflation; MPC will still be wary of labour demand
- CHINA+ - China’s consumption struggles amid low confidence and policy challenges
- EM ASIA - BoT held, again, but is becoming anxious about domestic demand
- LATAM - COPOM’s cautious stance amid inflation risks and economic threats
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- US - Homebase points to strong August payrolls, but we’re looking elsewhere
- EUROZONE - Some wage growth indices are rising, but the ECB will still cut
- UK - An even-handed MPC would look through the services undershoot
- CHINA+ - China’s July activity data point to softer economic momentum
- EM ASIA - Starting gun fired; the BSP likely to step up cuts to 50bp each
- LATAM - The service is on holiday, returning next week
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
