Pantheon Macroeconomics

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Global Publications

Below is a list of our Global Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep

Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)

17 July 2024 Global Monitor Soft US June CPI tees up a first Fed rate cut in September

  • US - The June core PCE deflator likely rose by just 0.15%, below the Fed’s forecast
  • EUROZONE - Will the ECB signal a September rate cut this week? We think so
  • UK - Huge Labour majority will usher in modestly better growth
    CHINA+ - China hits a soft patch in Q2, as domestic demand dwindles
  • EM ASIA - Manufacturing recovery likely still on the cards in Singapore
  • LATAM - Mexico, Colombia: mixed inflation signals amid rate cut prospects

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global

10 July 2024 Global Monitor A fragmented parliament in France; what happens next?

  • US - Fears of a labor market downturn will supplant inflation worries at the Fed
  • EUROZONE - Right wing in France suffers defeat, as do French pollsters
  • UK - Huge Labour majority will usher in modestly better growth
  • CHINA+ - PBoC preparing to boost long-term bond yields
  • EM ASIA - June CPI laying the groundwork for BSP and BoT cuts next month
  • LATAM - Brazil’s economic tightrope; the COPOM faces a balancing act

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global

3 July 2024 Global Monitor Spain outperforming on and off the football pitch

  • US - May’s PCE data show the Fed has already done more than enough
  • Eurozone - We’re lifting our EZ GDP growth forecasts for Q2, by 0.1pp to 0.3%
  • UK - Forecast review: Cutting through a storm of strong data
  • China+ - China’s light industry outperforms heavy industry, amid soft demand
  • EM Asia - Thailand’s year-end digital cash handout will be no silver bullet
  • LatAm - Banxico holds rates steady but signals potential for future cuts

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global

25 June 2024 Global Monitor Soaring shipping costs will lift US inflation only slightly

  • US - Trebling of shipping costs likely to add 0.04pp at most to core PCE inflation
  • EUROZONE - EZ PMIs stumbled at the end of Q2; will they pick up again in Q3?
  • UK - The MPC is itching to cut, so two rate reductions this year are likely
  • CHINA+ - Japan’s stagflation conundrum; service sector at risk of stagnation
  • EM ASIA - A reprieve for Singapore’s long-suffering semiconductor sector
  • LATAM - Mexican economy falters amid challenges and uncertainty

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global

19 June 2024 Global Monitor Another BoE hold but SNB likely to cut again

  • US - The FOMC is too optimistic with its unemployment forecast
  • EUROZONE - Markets still underestimating the amount of SNB easing
  • UK - MPC preview: leaving open the timing of the first rate cut
  • CHINA+ - BoJ commits to cutting JGB-buying, with details to be revealed in July
  • EM ASIA - Indian inflation heading into H2: a shift from mundane to manic
  • LATAM - Brazil’s economic activity losing steam amid mounting headwinds

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global

Global Datanote: US CPI, May

Disinflation is back on track; expect two easings in today’s 2024 dot plot.

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global

12 June 2024 Global Monitor European election aftermath rattles markets

  • US - September easing remains a decent base case, despite May payrolls
  • EUROZONE - Domestic political risk returns to Eurozone financial markets
  • UK - Labour market data help the chances of an August rate cut
  • CHINA+ - China’s exports turn the corner; on track for modest growth this year
  • EM ASIA - An August RBI rate cut seems both so close and yet so far
  • LATAM - Brazil’s economic momentum hits a speed bump after promising Q1

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global

5 June 2024 Global Monitor A landslide election result in Mexico

  • US - Core PCE numbers are improving, but more progress needed for rate cuts
  • EUROZONE - All set for a hawkish first 25bp rate cut by the ECB this week
  • UK - Forecast review: Persistence means patience for the MPC
  • CHINA+ - US tariffs on “new trio” to have limited impact on Chinese exports
  • EM ASIA - The devil’s in the details of India’s consensus-beating Q1 GDP print
  • LATAM - Landslide victory in Mexico gives MORENA strong political capital

Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global

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