Global Datanote: Bank of Thailand Decision

• In one line: Expect one more—final—cut in Q2, after today’s surprise reduction.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

Global Datanote: Bank Indonesia Decision

• In one line: Patience is a virtue, in this climate.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

Global Datanote: Trade, Indonesia, January

• In one line: A very unwelcome leap in the trade surplus.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

Global Datanote: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Decision

• In one line: This surprise pause won’t last long.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

Global Datanote: January CPI & December IP, India

• In one line: Setting the stage for an immediate follow-up rate cut in April; consumer goods output go MIA to close off 2024.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

Global Datanote: Reserve Bank of India Decision

• In one line: The first cut is finally here; expect at least one more by mid-year.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

Global Datanote: CPI, Indonesia, January

• In one line: A huge, albeit temporary, gift from the new government.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

Global Datanote: Manufacturing PMI, ASEAN, January

• In one line: Not the best of starts to 2025.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

Global Datanote: Bank Indonesia Decision

• In one line: A genuine surprise; at least three more cuts this year.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

Global Datanote: Trade, Indonesia, December

• In one line: Ignore the volatility, the trade surplus is growing, slowly.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

Global Datanote: CPI, India, December

• In one line: Carpet being rolled out for a February rate cut.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

Global Datanote: Industrial Production, India, November

• In one line: A credible pop in growth, Diwali noise aside.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

Global Datanote: CPI, Indonesia, December

• In one line: Reassuringly unchanged readings to close out 2024.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

Global Datanote: Manufacturing PMI, ASEAN, December

• In one line: Let down by developed members.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

Global Datanote: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Decision

• In one line: 75bp down; 100bp more—at minimum—in 2025.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

Global Datanote: Bank Indonesia Decision

• In one line: An anti-climactic end to the year.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

Global Datanote: Bank of Thailand Decision

• In one line: A pause that will probably hold for the first few meetings in 2025.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

Global Datanote: Trade, Indonesia, November

• In one line: A not-so-welcome leap in the trade surplus.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

Global Datanote: Nov. CPI & Oct. IP, India

In one line: No major surprises; red carpet being relaid for rate cuts.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global

Global Datanote: Reserve Bank of India Decision

• In one line: A halfway-house approach in response to the grim Q3 GDP.

Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global