- In one line: Indonesia’s PMI is going from bad to worse, hitting the headline.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- US - Rapid Fed easing warranted despite solid consumer momentum
- EUROZONE - Italian growth will improve, despite construction capex dwindling
- UK- UK still vulnerable to energy price shocks
- CHINA+ - China’s aging housing stock another reason for people to save
- EM ASIA - Rural consumption reviving, but India’s GDP slowdown isn’t over
- LATAM - Brazil’s labour market starting to show signs of moderation
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- In one line: GDP growth surges in Q2 amid strong labour market.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
In one line: Consistent with continued recession in industry, despite upward revision.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
- In one line: Steady headline masks continued food disinflation.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
In one line: Within a touch of the ECB’s target; September’s rate cut is a go
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
- US - Dovish pivot complete; the Fed now has serious catching-up to do
- EUROZONE - Olympic boost to the EZ PMIs, and a big drop in Q2 wage growth
- UK- Higher output, lower inflation; MPC will still be wary of labour demand
- CHINA+ - China’s consumption struggles amid low confidence and policy challenges
- EM ASIA - BoT held, again, but is becoming anxious about domestic demand
- LATAM - COPOM’s cautious stance amid inflation risks and economic threats
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
In one line: Activity springs back up again thanks to the Olympics.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Services boosted by the Olympics; manufacturing is sinking without a trace.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
- In one line: Still sticking to our call for Q4 easing, but a September move can’t be ruled out.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Still believe that cuts are just around the corner.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- US - Homebase points to strong August payrolls, but we’re looking elsewhere
- EUROZONE - Some wage growth indices are rising, but the ECB will still cut
- UK - An even-handed MPC would look through the services undershoot
- CHINA+ - China’s July activity data point to softer economic momentum
- EM ASIA - Starting gun fired; the BSP likely to step up cuts to 50bp each
- LATAM - The service is on holiday, returning next week
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
In one line: Energy inflation will back in August and September; the core will remain high.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
- In one line: The BSP pulls the trigger… more—and potentially larger—cuts to come in Q4.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Small surplus isn’t actually that bad, while the stellar y/y rates need to be put into context.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- US - July core CPI data to leave the door wide open to rapid Fed easing
- EUROZONE - Is the Taylor Rule back as a forecasting tool in the Eurozone?
- UK - CPI preview: CPI inflation likely to rise to 2.3% in July
- CHINA+ - China’s inflation data confirm sluggish demand
- EM ASIA - Ignore the hype, consumption in the Philippines is in recession
- LATAM - Tackling inflation in Mexico and Chile is becoming difficult
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- In one line: A mixed picture, as transportation costs rise while food prices decline.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: A prudent rate cut, defying consensus, reflects improved inflation dynamics.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: A modest rate cut signals a shift towards further easing, with caution.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
