- In one line: Expect one more—final—cut in Q2, after today’s surprise reduction.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- US - How seriously should we take the PMI’s slowdown signal?
- EUROZONE - The establishment in Germany wins one last chance to get it right
- UK - Increased NICs will be manageable for firms and consumers
- CHINA+ - Policy support driving China’s credit growth; property loans cool
- EM ASIA - Not long until BI eases again, especially given Prabowo’s cuts
- LATAM - Mexico’s economic outlook worsens amid external and domestic risks
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
In one line: A local high, but still no perfect landing at 2%.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
- In one line: A bad end to the year, and downside risks have increased.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
In one line: Up again, in line with our call for a rebound in GDP.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Ugly crash in the services PMI is a fluke, we hope
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
- In one line: Patience is a virtue, in this climate.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- US - Core PCE inflation fell in January; further progress to come
- EUROZONE - A truce in Ukraine is no panacea for still-elevated EZ energy prices
- UK - UK growth on the path to some recovery in Q1
- CHINA+ - Policy support driving China’s credit growth; property loans cool
- EM ASIA - BSP’s surprise pause won’t last long; real rates still way too high
- LATAM - Temporary disinflation in Brazil; Mexico’s industrial sector woes
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- In one line: A very unwelcome leap in the trade surplus.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: On hold and maintaining a cautious stance.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: This surprise pause won’t last long.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Setting the stage for an immediate follow-up rate cut in April; consumer goods output go MIA to close off 2024.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Modest January pressures offer little relief to a challenging inflation outlook.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- US - Stabilizing jobs numbers remove the need for near-term Fed easing
- EUROZONE - Another day, another tariff threat, this time on steel and aluminium
- UK - Focus on hawkish forecasts rather than two votes for a 50bp cut
- CHINA+ - China’s holiday spending is robust, but it won’t last
- EM ASIA - Malhotra’s RBI debut was both no shock and unexpectedly reassuring
- LATAM - Banxico accelerates easing, but US policy will influence the outlook
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- In one line: A larger cut; improving inflation outlook allows for bolder action.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: A good start to the year, supporting further policy normalisation.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Inflation spikes in January, driven by electricity tariffs.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
