- In one line: The first cut is finally here; expect at least one more by mid-year.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- US - A growth slowdown looms, as the saving rate rebounds
- EUROZONE - The ECB can’t dodge questions on the neutral rate for much longer
- UK - MPC preview: 25bp cut, guiding to three-to-four reductions in 2025
- CHINA+ - DeepSeek puts Chinese AI on the map; a wake-up call for investors
- EM ASIA - New headwinds amid green shoots; PH won’t do much better in 2025
- LATAM - Mexico, Colombia: mixed inflation signals amid rate cut prospects
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- Pre-tariff upturn probably will be fleeting.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)Global
- In one line: The recovery continues, and expect further good news in Q1.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
In one line: Hot, but all eyes on tariffs this morning.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
- In one line: A huge, albeit temporary, gift from the new government.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Not the best of starts to 2025.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: On hold, as uncertainty has increased substantially.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
In one line: No signal on the level of the neutral rate.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
- In one line: A terrible end to the year, and downside risks have increased.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: Another bold rate hike and a continued hawkish stance.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: On hold due to increased uncertainty.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- US - The idea of a post-election “vibes” shift is unsupported by surveys
- EUROZONE - Our highlights in a busy week: 25bp ECB cut and soft Q4 GDP data
- UK - Speaking less but saying more; MPC speech frequency declining
- CHINA+ - Surprise fall in China’s PMIs signals recovery is far from assured
- EM ASIA - India’s January PMIs a reality check for a still-rosy consensus
- LATAM - Persistent inflation pressures in Brazil; Mexico’s recovery falters
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- In one line: Under pressure, and threats abound.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
In one line: Up, supporting our call for faster GDP growth in early 2025, but not enough to deter an ECB rate cut next week.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Great, but beware the likely seasonal boost in services.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Downturn stalled, but no upturn in sight.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
- US - Core inflation still likely to be lower by year-end in most tariff scenarios
- EUROZONE - The outlook for EZ inflation in Q1; a hot headline, but a soft core?
- UK - Ignore the December inflation drop; it’s still heading above 3% in April
- CHINA+ - China’s stimulus policies worked in Q4, but recovery won’t be easy
- EM ASIA - BI shrugs off IDR slump and starts 2025 with shock cut; a good move
- LATAM - Will headwinds from a protectionist US hurt the Mexican economy?
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
In one line: Upside risks building in energy, but the Q1 core looks benign on our forecasts.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
