- In one line: A pause that will probably hold for the first few meetings in 2025.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- US - FOMC likely to follow up a 25bp easing this week with January pause
- EUROZONE - No more restrictive policy at the ECB, and a jumbo cut by the SNB
- UK - MPC preview: on hold, and repeating the “gradual” mantra
- CHINA+ - CEWC takeaways: China prioritises demand-boosting policies for 2025
- EM ASIA - Indian food CPI now subsiding; the 2025 story is no one-way street
- LATAM - Great problems require great solutions: COPOM hikes by 100bp
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Growth will still slow, despite increase in PMI in December; rising price indices still point to downside risks for inflation.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Still no sign of a pick up in new orders in manufacturing.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
- In one line: A not-so-welcome leap in the trade surplus.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: On hold, but ready to cut if the economic recovery falters.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: A decent start to Q4, but downside risks remain for 2025.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
In one line: Dovish, but staying open on the path in 2025 and the level of the neutral rate.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: As expected; no longer need for a restrictive policy rate. Where is neutral?
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: No major surprises; red carpet being relaid for rate cuts.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
In one line: Martin Schlegel comes out swinging with jumbo cut at his first meeting as SNB Chairman.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
- In one line: A significant rate hike to control inflation expectations.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- US - Slowdown in payroll growth confirms monetary policy still is too tight
- EUROZONE - ECB to ease by 25bp this week and tee up a cut in January too
- UK - LFS revisions cut productivity and raise inflation pressure
- CHINA+ - Japanese consumption activity still weak, as BoJ monitors wage trends
- EM ASIA - RBI holds, just, but more grounds laid for a February rate cut
- LATAM - Disinflation in Mexico leaves door open to further policy normalisation
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
- In one line: Core inflation continues to fall, allowing Banxico to cut rates further.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: A halfway-house approach in response to the grim Q3 GDP.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
In one line: Pointing to downside risks still, but probably overdoing it.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
- US - November payrolls to indicate the trend is still slowing
- EUROZONE - ECB likely to cut by 25bp this month, and the same in January
- UK - MPC splits into three camps to match its three scenarios
- CHINA+ - Tokyo headline inflation jump mostly due to food and energy inflation
- EM ASIA -India’s disastrous Q3 GDP print has been long in the making
- LATAM -Brazil facing rising inflation and economic issues ahead of rate hikes
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
- In one line: Solid, but high interest rates will be a drag.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
Tentative signs of improvement, but still weak.
Oliver Allen (Senior US Economist)Global
