- In one line: Under pressure, and threats abound.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
In one line: Up, supporting our call for faster GDP growth in early 2025, but not enough to deter an ECB rate cut next week.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Great, but beware the likely seasonal boost in services.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Downturn stalled, but no upturn in sight.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
- US - Core inflation still likely to be lower by year-end in most tariff scenarios
- EUROZONE - The outlook for EZ inflation in Q1; a hot headline, but a soft core?
- UK - Ignore the December inflation drop; it’s still heading above 3% in April
- CHINA+ - China’s stimulus policies worked in Q4, but recovery won’t be easy
- EM ASIA - BI shrugs off IDR slump and starts 2025 with shock cut; a good move
- LATAM - Will headwinds from a protectionist US hurt the Mexican economy?
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
In one line: Upside risks building in energy, but the Q1 core looks benign on our forecasts.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
- In one line: A modest gain, in contrast to sectoral data.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: A genuine surprise; at least three more cuts this year.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Ignore the volatility, the trade surplus is growing, slowly.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- US - Payrolls are too noisy for December’s data to convincing signal an upturn
- EUROZONE - Will dovish Q1 inflation help bruised and battered EZ bonds?
- UK - GDP likely rebounded by 0.2% month-to-month in November
- CHINA+ - All eyes on China’s likely response to President Trump’s opening salvo
- EM ASIA - Don’t put much stock into India’s 6.4% FAE; the slowdown isn’t over
- LATAM - Brazil’s inflation ends 2024 on a good note, but the outlook is dismal
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- In one line: Carpet being rolled out for a February rate cut.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: A modest cut; approaching the end of the easing cycle.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: A modest downtick in late Q4, but the outlook is grim.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- In one line: A credible pop in growth, Diwali noise aside.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Undershooting expectations; a relief for the BCCh.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
In one line: ECB doves were saved by France and Italy.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
- US - Payroll growth likely was sluggish again in December
- EUROZONE - All set for another ‘gradualist’ 25bp rate cut from the ECB
- UK - Forecast review: slow growth and fast inflation to keep MPC cautious
- CHINA+ - Korean business sentiment dives due to political crisis; trade risks rise
- EM ASIA - A few silver linings in otherwise soft December ASEAN PMI
- LATAM - Kicking off 2025 with monetary policy and economic challenges
ian shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
In one line: Relief in the PMIs; investor sentiment and seasonals signal further gains ahead.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
- In one line: Reassuringly unchanged readings to close out 2024.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
