In one line: Downside surprise, SNB will have to ease more than we previously thought.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: A big blow to hopes of a 50bp cut in December.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
- In one line: Resilient, but the near-term outlook remains difficult.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- US - Slow growth in October jobs will be more than a Boeing and Milton story
- EUROZONE - Mr. Trump’s 10% tariff would barely make a dent in EZ GDP
- UK - The Budget is worth 25-to-50bp on Bank Rate
- CHINA+ - Japan’s election result makes BoJ rate path more uncertain
- EM ASIA - Manufacturing single-handedly drives Singapore’s scorching Q3
- LATAM - Bad start to Q3 for inflation in Brazil and Mexico, but it should improve
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
In one line: Barely budging fuelling market expectations for faster ECB rate cuts.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: Down, in line with our call that French GDP will slow again in Q4 after an Olympics boost in Q3.
Melanie Debono (Senior Eurozone Economist)Global
- In one line: Under pressure, as agriculture and industrial production weaken.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Global
- US - Households’ liquid assets can’t alone sustain rapid spending growth
- EUROZONE - ECB doves won this month, but easing will be gradual from here
- UK - Budget will be stimulatory, despite large tax increases
- CHINA+ - China still likely to approve further targeted fiscal support
- EM ASIA - BoT’s long overdue cut is here; a December move is touch-and-go
- LATAM - Brazil faces slowdown amid inflation, drought and capex challenges
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
In one line: Growth indicators are rising in importance for policymakers.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: The first big win for ECB doves in a long time.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
In one line: The trump card ECB doves need for a third rate cut today.
Claus Vistesen (Chief Eurozone Economist)Global
- In one line: Expect easing to resume in November.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: The overdue turn we’ve been waiting for; expect another follow-up cut in December.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Many more cuts to come, and potentially larger ones from December.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: Blame the continued reversal of helpful food base effects; m/m trends are still improving.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- In one line: A quiet end to Q3 for two-way trade, the seasonal bump to the surplus aside.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
- US - Core CPI inflation still on track for 2% in 2025, despite September pick-up
- EUROZONE - The ECB will cut rates this week, but will it strike a hawkish tone?
- UK - Disposable income growth will keep consumption ticking along
- CHINA+ - China still likely to approve further targeted fiscal support
- EM ASIA - No cut—yet—but the RBI tide has turned; all eyes on Q3 GDP
- LATAM - Brazil’s inflation remains benign despite electricity-related shock
Ian Shepherdson (Chief Economist, Chairman and Founder)Global
- In one line: So much for the RBI’s “resilient” growth outlook.
Miguel Chanco (Chief EM Asia Economist)Global
