Latin America Publications
Below is a list of our Latin America Publications for the last 6 months. If you are looking for reports older than 6 months please email info@pantheonmacro.com, or contact your account rep
Please use the filters on the right to search for a specific date or topic.
- In one line: A smaller rate cut than expected amid rising inflation risks.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A modest cut; increasing uncertainty is preventing bolder action.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- A deteriorating near-term inflation outlook will force the BCCh to move to the sidelines in Q1.
- Colombia’s economy started Q4 robustly, but it is too soon to bet on a smooth ride in H1.
- Fiscal noise is forcing the BCB to intervene in Brazil’s FX market, but this will be insufficient.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil — Fiscal risk and political noise
- Mexico — At a crossroads ahead of a tricky H1
- Argentina — Emerging from years of economic turmoil
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- The end of the easing cycle in Chile is nearing, as domestic and external uncertainty tick higher.
- Colombia’s BanRep will continue to cut rates from still-elevated levels, though fiscal noise’s a constraint.
- Banxico is considering accelerating easing, but near term threats likely will impede faster progress.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A poor start to the quarter due to tight financial conditions.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Mr. Milei’s policies in his first year as President have led to historic disinflation and economic stabilisation.
- Strengthening ties with the US suggest Argentina could be the regional winner under Trump 2.0.
- Hurdles for next year include sustained disinflation, legislative challenges and external noise.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: On hold, but ready to cut if the economic recovery falters.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A decent start to Q4, but downside risks remain for 2025.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Peru’s BCRP signals a data-driven approach as inflation ticks up and economic activity improves.
- Brazil’s economic data surged beyond expectations, driven by a strong labour market and fiscal support.
- This strengthens the case for continued interest rate hikes, which will bring activity back down to earth.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s COPOM intensifies the pace of interest rate hikes as inflation expectations rise widely.
- Further rate hikes are in the pipeline; focus is now on the government’s ability to control the fiscal deficit.
- Mexico’s industrial sector is struggling, with uncertainty looming large until Trump 2.0 fears disappear.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Solid, but tight financial conditions will be a drag in H1.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A poor start to Q4, and the near-term outlook is grim.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil — Hit by elevated fiscal uncertainty
- Mexico — Contingent on external conditions
- Chile — Commodities and politics to watch
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: A significant rate hike to control inflation expectations.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil faces significant economic challenges as inflation and geopolitical tensions escalate in 2025.
- We expect bold policy action today; the inflation outlook has deteriorated sharply due to the BRL sell-off.
- The next meeting will mark a transition, as the new governor will have to tackle the inflation pressures.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Mexico’s disinflation is continuing as core pressures ease further, allowing Banxico to cut rates further.
- Geopolitical uncertainty around the new US administration’s policies could hit the economic outlook.
- Sticky core inflation and high policy uncertainty complicate BanRep’s ability to accelerate rate cuts.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Core inflation continues to fall, allowing Banxico to cut rates further.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Chile’s economic recovery faces challenges from weak sentiment and external risks.
- Fiscal issues persist as the government plans spending cuts to address revenue shortfalls ahead.
- Inflation in Peru remains within the target range, signalling that the end of the easing cycle is nearing.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s industrial sector remains relatively resilient, but tighter financial conditions will be a drag in 2025.
- The trade balance shows the surplus is shrinking, indicating challenges from external demand.
- Chile’s inflation picture remains benign, despite recent volatility; the BCCh will continue to cut rates.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
