- Argentina’s economy enjoyed a solid end to 2024, and the outlook remains benign, though not risk-free.
- Growth prospects are driven by exports, capex, structural improvements in key sectors, and disinflation.
- Mr. Milei will have to balance fiscal discipline with IMF negotiations and political resistance to reforms.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Another bold rate hike, but the magnitude of tightening will be reduced in May.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil — Lula cutting taxes to regain popularity
- Mexico — Reforms, controversies and trade hurdles
- Colombia — Turbulent times amid reform efforts
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Ending 2024 on a strong note, but risks loom for 2025.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Chile’s economic recovery gained momentum despite still-tight financial conditions and external noise.
- Q4 growth was driven by private consumption and capex; manufacturing and construction lagged.
- External risks remain significant and will prevent the BCCh from cutting rates to neutral any time soon.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Better, but the overall picture is still one of subpar growth.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- LatAm central banks face a complex external environment; vigilance and policy adjustments are needed.
- The BCRP remained cautious amid global risks and strong economic activity, despite falling inflation.
- Brazil’s economic activity is slowing despite initial optimism in its early-2025 performance.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Tight financial conditions remain a drag at the core level.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: On hold amid rising global uncertainty.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s retail sector is struggling as spending weakens amid uncertainty and higher interest rates.
- The service sector is slowing; high borrowing costs and softening labour-market conditions are drags.
- The trade war forces central banks to adopt a cautious approach, delaying a faster regional economic upturn.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Industrial output slumps further; outlook remains weak.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Inflation pressures persist despite economic activity slowing.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil’s inflation in February hit its highest rate since 2023, as underlying pressures are persisting, for now.
- Mexico’s industrial output plunged in January, with trade-war uncertainty weighing heavily.
- The manufacturing sector is struggling as US tariffs threaten Mexico’s economic backbone and capex.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Tight financial conditions are a drag.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Brazil — A modest performance amid volatility
- Mexico — Hit by US tariff policy uncertainty
- Colombia — Oil, tariffs and politics
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- High interest rates and global demand weakness are weighing on Brazil’s industrial production.
- Persistent inflation pressures challenge Colombia’s BanRep, delaying rate cuts and stifling growth.
- High indexation and labour costs will keep inflation above the Bank’s target in 2025.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- Mexico’s inflation is edging higher on base effects, but underlying trends remain favourable for Banxico.
- Chile’s disinflation resumed in February after an electricity-tariff shock, but BCCh is likely to stay cautious.
- Policy easing will face headwinds from the tariff noise, commodity prices and currency movements.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Core pressures subdued as demand cools.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
- In one line: Disinflation resumes as temporary shocks subside.
Andrés Abadía (Chief LatAm Economist)Latin America
